SEC Football Head Coach Evaluation: Kentucky Wildcats’ Mark Stoops

Nov 1, 2014; Columbia, MO, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops on the sidelines during a timeout during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field. Missouri won 20-10. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In building the case against Stoops, one must examine the Wildcats’ 2015 potential.

Their schedule according to fbsschedules.com:

9/05 Louisiana’s Lafayette (Home)

9/12 South Carolina (Away)

9/19 Florida (Home)

9/26 Missouri (Home)

10/03 Eastern Kentucky (Home)

10/10 Open

10/15 (Thursday) Auburn (Home)

10/24 Mississippi State (Away)

10/31 Tennessee (Home)

11/07 Georgia (Away)

11/14 Vanderbilt (Home)

11/28 Louisville (Home)

The first thing that jumps out is that the Wildcats have secured 8 home games this year, the importance of which cannot be oversated.

Stoops and Co. should pick up victories against Louisiana Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Charlotte.  That leaves 8 games to win 2.

The maybe games consist of Florida (first year coach, lost 30-36 in 3OT in 2014), South Carolina (tough to include that as a toss-up, but the Wildcats beat South Carolina 45-38 in 2014), Mississippi State (hung tough with MSU

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

when they were still number one…that was a Thursday, though.  MSU fans should count this as a likely win), and Louisville (it’s a home rivalry game).

That leaves the “no chance unless everything goes perfect games” against Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee (matchup nightmare based on last year’s 16-50 loss), and Georgia.

That means:  4:4:4  for wins:maybes:ha!naw’s.  Aside from the 4 win games, Kentucky could very well be the underdog in every other game they play.   They likely win at least one maybe game, like last year’s victory against USCe.  That would bring the total to 5.

Even with home field advantage in many games, it is still tough to imagine Kentucky making a bowl this year.  If that happens, Kentucky fans will start to get restless and elite recruits will likely return to looking elsewhere.  Such is life in the SEC.

Another knock on Stoops’ tenure is the amount of points Stoops’ defenses have given up while at Kentucky.

The top 60 scoring offenses of 2014 all averaged at least 28.3 points per game.  Using 28.3 as a reference for average, examine how many times Kentucky’s defense has been subpar:

2013

• Gave up 35 to Western Kentucky (L)
• Gave up 35 to South Carolina (L)
• Gave up 48 to Alabama (L)
• Gave up 48 to Missouri (L)
• Gave up 59 to Georgia (L)

Nov 29, 2014; Louisville, KY, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Patrick Towles (14) looks to pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the second quarter at Papa John

2014

• Gave up 36 to Florida (L)
• Gave up 38 to South Carolina (W)
• Gave up 41 to LSU (L)
• Gave up 45 to Mississippi State (L)
• Gave up 63 to Georgia (L)
• Gave up 50 to Tennessee (L)
• Gave up 44 to Louisville (L)

Note that the number of games Kentucky’s defense was lit up went in the wrong direction in 2014.  Everywhere else Stoops has been, the defense has seen improvement in year 2.  Securing a single victory in those 2014 matchups does not cause much confidence, either.

Do not get me wrong.  It is not like Stoops’ D took a complete nosedive in year 2.  Kentucky gave up 31.17 points per game in 2013; they gave up 31.25 in 2014.

The reason here is simple:  Kentucky’s defense improved against lesser competition.  The problem, though, was that when Kentucky scored more in 2014 (26.5) than in 2013 (18.0), opposing offenses were slower to take their foot off the petal.  Stoops did not have the Wildcats defense equipped to slow down their assaults.  The result was more games in which Kentucky’s defense was exploited.

Any improvement by Kentucky’s defense in year 2 of Stoops tenure was thus negated.  This obviously cannot be considered a good thing for a coach whose specialty is defense.  Think Will Muschamp for perspective.  While he never had an offense, Florida’s defense under Muschamp was always elite.  If the Wildcats do not make serious improvements, Stoops will be stamped with the “great coordinator, bad head coach” label sooner rather than later.

Stoops has increased recruiting success and improved the Wildcats win total between years one and two.  His defense did not improve and a bowl looks unlikely in 2016.  I think we have enough for a verdict.

Next: The Verdict