The SEC is often times overlooked when it comes to men’s basketball, but let us not forget the SEC has won 3 of the last 10 National Championships. We are reaching with Florida going back to back in 2006 and 2007, but Kentucky has done more than enough to keep the league afloat on the national level, even though they only have one National Championship in that 10 year span, winning it all in 2012.
The overall perception that the SEC is not a strong basketball conference makes it challenging to get into the NCAA tournament without having at least 22 wins and a strong out of conference schedule. Ole Miss is 20-11, but a weak out of conference schedule has their SOS ranked at 168th. They are on the outside looking in, needing a deep run despite having 20 wins.
This article is to discuss those bubble teams, so let us go ahead and mention the teams that can only get in with an SEC Tournament Championship: Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia. We can also go ahead and leave out mentioning Texas A&M and Kentucky because they are locks for the NCAA tournament. Now, let us look at the remaining teams that got work to do.
Ole Miss (20-11) RPI 84 – Their aforementioned 168th ranked SOS doesn’t help out their 3-9 record against the top 100 in RPI. Ole Miss very well may need to win the SEC tournament to get in the NCAA tournament, but I believe a run to championship could keep Ole Miss’s dancing hopes alive.
Alabama (17-13) RPI 72 – Their 29th ranked SOS certainly helps shade their glaring 17-13 record. They went 6-10 against the top 100 in RPI. I think they are in the same boat as Ole Miss. They may need to win the SEC Tournament to guarantee entry into the NCAA Tournament, but an impressive run to the SEC Championship game could be enough to get them in the Big Dance.
Florida (18-13) RPI 53 – Once deemed a lock into the NCAA Tournament with their 11th ranked SOS, Florida sputtered at the end of the season, finishing 2-5 in their last 7 games. They have a huge win over West Virginia, but they are 3-7 vs RPI top 50. Florida needs to have an impressive run to at least the semifinals to have hopes of getting in the NCAA Tournament as an SEC Bubble team.
LSU (18-13) RPI 90 – It is hard to imagine an NCAA tournament without the best player in college basketball. Without a SEC Championship, that may be the very situation we find ourselves in this year. LSU is 7-7 vs the RPI Top 100. However, they are 3-6 vs teams with an RPI between 101 and 150. I’m looking for LSU’s SEC Bubble to pop.
Vanderbilt (19-12) RPI 48 – After spending much of the season on the outside of the bubble, Vanderbilt has worked themselves into a solid position as long as they can string together a couple of wins in the SEC Tournament. Their 2-8 record against the RPI Top 50 cannot save Vanderbilt from being left out of the NCAA Tournament if they exit the SEC Tournament in the early rounds.
South Carolina (23-7) RPI 47 – South Carolina has a SOS of 158. They do have a winning record
against the RPI Top 50, but it is only 2-1. In fact, South Carolina only had a total of 12 games against teams in the RPI Top 100. They did go 8-4 in those 12 games, but an early exit could land them a 1-seed in the NIT. If South Carolina can reach the semifinals, and lose a close one, they should feel good about their chances getting in to the NCAA Tournament.
When all is said and done, I expect to see Kentucky holding the trophy after winning the SEC Tournament. I have the SEC getting 4 teams in this year: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Texas A&M. I do have high hopes for Kentucky and Texas A&M to make some noise on the national level.
All stats and ranking information taken from espn.com