Would Kirby Smart Ever Leave Georgia for the NFL?

Just like his mentor Nick Saban, don’t be surprised if NFL head coaching rumors start to surface with University of Georgia head coach Kirby Smart.

During his time in Athens as head coach of the Bulldogs since 2016, Smart has compiled a record of 90-15, which is a winning percentage of 86%; the second highest in the SEC to Saban who has an 88% winning percentage. Smart also has the Bulldogs as the two-time defending national champions.

During his eight seasons at Alabama as defensive coordinator with the Crimson Tide from 2008-2015, Smart’s defenses averaged 13.25 points per game allowed. This stint included the legendary 2011 Tide defense that allowed 8.2 points per game. These numbers continued in Athens where defenses during Smarts tenure as head coach average 16.5 points per game allowed.

Smart has also had 60 players drafted into the NFL during his time in Athens, including 16 first rounders.

With these numbers, NFL teams would be hard pressed to at least not try to go after Smart. After all, the NFL already lured away a top coach once in Nick Saban in 2004. And like Smart is right now, that was coming off of a national championship year for Saban at LSU.

However, that was 20 years ago. And there hasn’t been an SEC head coach that has bolted for an NFL head coaching job since from their school.

Here are my thoughts on why Kirby Smart will remain in Athens as the head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs.

Would Kirby Smart potentially leave Georgia for the NFL?

Success in college doesn’t equal success in the NFL – It’s a roll of the dice. Some coaches like Jim Harbaugh, Pete Carroll and Jimmy Johnson have arguably seen success at both levels. Bobby Petrino, Chip Kelly, Butch Davis, Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier and Matt Rhule are ones that have made the jump that have not. And amongst these names, the only one to ever win the coveted “Super Bowl” was Jimmy Johnson with the Dallas Cowboys in 1992 and 1993.

Increased pay for College Coaches – While the average pay of the top five NFL head coaches in 2023 is roughly $15 million compared to $10 million for the top five NCAA football head coaches, it’s worth noting that the average salary of the top five NCAA head coaches has nearly doubled from $5.9 million in 2014 to $10.66 million in 2023. This combined with the college game being said to be less of a day-to-day, 365 day per year grind should help to keep Smart at bay, as it has with other top college coaches we’ve seen. Fewer and fewer are darting for the NFL. And one could heavily argue based on the numbers that it has to do with better pay to keep them around the college game. Kirby Smart is reportedly making $10.7 million per year right now.

Georgia is Smart’s Alma Mater – While the defensive numbers, winning percentages and several other parallels can be drawn from Nick Saban and Kirby Smart, one things that can’t be is that Smart has found his success during his head coaching career at his Alma Mater: the University of Georgia. Smart played defensive back for the Bulldogs from 1995-1998 before returning to the Bulldogs as their head coach where he’s been since 2016. Smart grew up in Bainbridge, Georgia as well as a lifelong Bulldog fan. Allegiance to one’s alma mater is often times paralleled by none.

There shouldn’t be a doubt in Bulldog fans’ minds that Smart is mindful of these things. So despite the staggering statistics and the never-ending lure of the NFL, the coaching interviews that he’ll inevitably receive, Smart seems to be more of a “college coach” for life. So to the delight of Bulldog fans and maybe the dread of other SEC fans, expect Smart to remain in Athens for the long haul.