The Alabama Crimson Tide are 2-0 under first year head coach Kalen DeBoer who takes over after a 17-year run under Nick Saban who retired following the 2023 season. Saban won six national championships and nine SEC championships during his time with the Tide, which makes him the greatest college football coach of all-time.
Following in those footsteps is a daunting task for anyone. Despite his recent success with the University of Washington guiding them to a College Football Playoff appearance in 2023, DeBoer is not exempt from that. Even more of a sign of promise is the fact that DeBoer is 106-12 all-time as a head coach.
The impressive accolades of DeBoer combined with what he inherits in Tuscaloosa is impressive, but sustained success of the dynasty that Saban built should not be assumed too quickly. Even if DeBoer ends up winning a National Championship the next few seasons, I share a few reasons why Alabama fans should not be so sure they are all set for the long haul.
Two reasons Alabama fans should not be sold on Kalen DeBoer for a long while
1. Program drop offs take awhile
In 2024, DeBoer inherits a roster loaded with talent from the Saban era. That talent will remain in Tuscaloosa the next few seasons before it has fully phased out. The true test will not only be if DeBoer wins with it, but if he can win without it after a few years have passed.
Larry Coker at Miami: Larry Coker is a great example here of a coach that took over a program in 2001 and led them to a National Championship with nearly all players on the roster being from previous head coach Butch Davis who departed for an NFL head coaching job with the Cleveland Browns.
The year before Davis’ exit in Coral Gables, the Hurricanes went 11-1. Davis had everything in place, and Coker indeed did what he should do- won a National Championship with it in 2001. However, the years following would see a demise for Coker and the Hurricanes who would regress all the way to a 7-6 record in 2006 which led to Coker’s firing.
Since then, the Hurricanes have only had one 10-win season back in 2017.
Will Muschamp at Florida: Muschamp was “the guy that followed the guy” after Urban Meyer’s exit following the 2009 season. Meyer’s six-year run with the Gators saw them win two national championships in 2006 and 2008.
Muschamp wasted no time regressing the program in this instance. Unlike Coker who at least won a National Championship off of his predecessor’s success, Muschamp’s first season in Gainesville was 7-6. Although he would have an impressive 11-2 season the following year in 2012, Muschamp would go a combined 10-13 the following two years in Gainesville which would lead to his firing.
2. Successful recruiting has to be sustained
DeBoer has the Tide ranked as the second-best recruiting class in the country for 2025 according to On3. That is absolutely a positive, but the counter argument is that a big part of the reason the Tide’s class is so high is due to the brand that Saban built over his 17 years prior to DeBoer’s arrival.
The true test for DeBoer will be to see if he can sustain success with recruiting classes over the next few years. One thing already not working in the Tide’s favor many argue is the fact that DeBoer is missing out on a lot of in-state high school talent in Alabama with many committed to the Auburn Tigers right now within the 2025 class.
Recruiting the state and its surrounding areas was something Saban always had an emphasis on, and is why his program was so dominant. Saban made in-state talent want to stay in the state and play for the Tide. DeBoer is taking a more national approach.
DeBoer’s top 11 commitments for the class of 2025 according to On3 are not from the state of Alabama. The arch-rival Auburn Tigers however are crushing it within the state with seven of their top eight commitments for the 2025 class coming from within the state of Alabama.
Time will have to tell with Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer
Although folks want to know outcomes immediately, college football takes awhile to decipher whether or not a coach will have success. DeBoer and the Tide are no different here. The question marks raised are valid, but what has also been valid throughout DeBoer’s tenure as a head coach is his track record of winning and proven ability to develop talent.
If his ability to develop talent can hold up in the SEC, that theory would mean it does not matter how many stars players have, or where they reside from. This would be way different than the Saban era but would work as well. That is not something that we will find out tomorrow though. So again, time will have to tell the tale.