ATS: Southbound and Down Week 11 Pick Em

Before the 2015 SEC football season began, the staff here at Southbound and Down agreed to participate in a weekly Pick ‘Em of SEC games. We’ve had incredible stretches to go along with some embarrassingly bad picks. As close as many of us are to .500, though, it’s obvious we’ve also had plenty of mediocre runs with our picks. The good news is our heads up pick ‘em game is strong. It is our picks against the spread (ATS) that have been much more hit or miss.

Many of us have heard from friends, families and strangers about how much better they could be doing if they were making the picks. While we can’t exactly make that a reality, it did spark an idea. Two weeks ago Southbound and Down readers were a part of the Southbound and Down Pick ‘Em. They continued last week and have put together an impressive start. If you think you’re up to the task, click on the fan pick ’em on the home page and make your opinion known.

Week 10 Update:

Neal: 5-2 ATS 2-5

Andrew: 4-3 ATS 4-3

Ben: 5-2 ATS 5-2

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John: 5-2 ATS 6-1

Readers: ATS 4-3

Overall Standings

John: 71-17 ATS 53-35

Neal: 71-17 ATS 43-44-1

Ben R: 67-21 ATS 51-37

Andrew: 44-21 ATS 32-31

Ben M: 19-2 ATS 16-7

Ryan: 38-13 ATS 23-28

Lee 30-7 ATS 23-16

Readers: ATS 9-4

The Games:

Spreads courtesy of teamrankings.com

Tennessee (-41) v North Texas

Neal: *Early Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications

Knoxville, TN Forecast: Open skies and sunny. No rain. Wind 4 mph. Cool temperature with low humidity

Tennessee usually pads the stats and points against significantly inferior opponents. Look for the Vols to get everyone some playing time, and plenty of scoring opportunities. I like the Vols to cover.

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North Texas 10 Tennessee 55

Andrew: No respect for the Mean Green? The Vols will win.. convincingly. But not by 41. Tennessee beats North Texas 49-17.

Ben R: 41 is a lot for anybody to cover, but if Louisiana Tech can beat North Texas 56-13, surely Tennessee can cover right? Well, we know that the starters are going to be out by half time, and probably be up 21 to 28 points. So, can Tennesee’s reserves cover a 13 to 20 point spread? I think that they can cover. UT covers and wins.

Ryan: Tennessee wins by a lot but doesn’t cover spread

John: This one will never be in doubt as Tennessee seems to have really found it’s groove lately. 41 points is too much to cover this late in the season, though, as UT will be looking to rest players after building a comfortable lead. At least that was my original thought. Then I looked at North Texas’ 2015 schedule. Tennessee covers with the towel boys playing in the 4^th.

Florida (-8.5) v South Carolina

Neal: *Early Kickoff

Columbia, SC Forecast: Open skies and sunny. No projected rain. Wind 5 mph. Cool temperature with low humidity

The Eastern Division Champions had a scare last weekend at home. I made the mistake of overlooking the letdown. Nonetheless, I don’t think a second let down is in order Saturday. Look for Florida to win convincingly in Columbia.

Nov 7, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Treon Harris (3) throws the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Florida covers.

Florida 31 South Carolina 17

Andrew: South Carolina is the last conference opponent on the Gators’ schedule. But at this point, it’s playoff or bust for Florida. If the Gators come out flat and distracted (like they did against Vandy), this game could be another close call. I still like Florida, but the outside distractions keep it tight: 23-14.

Ben R: South Carolina gave Tennessee all they could handle last week in a surprisingly close game. Vanderbilt gave Florida all they could handle and it is a miracle that they actually won. Give me UF to win, and South Carolina to cover at home.

Ryan: Florida wins and covers

John: The only thing worse than Treon Harris at quarterback in this game is South Carolina’s defense. Florida will score enough to win by one score.

Auburn (-1.5) v Georgia

Neal: *Early Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications ***CBS Early Choice

Auburn, AL Forecast: Open skies and sunny. No projected rain. Wind 10 mph. Slightly cool temperature with low humidity

Auburn still has a pulse. Give Gus Malzahn and his staff credit for keeping the Tigers playing. Georgia stopped the bleeding a little last weekend. This line is dang near a pick’em. I understand why it’s low, but I think you’ve got to go with the Tigers covering at home.

Georgia 17 Auburn 21

Andrew: Both Auburn and Georgia bounced back nicely after suffering few conference match-ups. I like Georgia 28-14 over Auburn just because it’s in Athens, Ga.

Ben R: Auburn looks like a much better team than they did earlier in the year. They aren’t as good as we thought they would be before the year started, but they aren’t as bad as we thought they would be just after the season started. Give me Auburn to put the nail in the coffin on Coach Richt’s career in Athens. Auburn wins and covers.

Ryan: Georgia covers the spread as underdogs against Auburn.

John: The disappointing season bowl of 2015. Both teams were thought to be contenders in their division and both are out of that race. Auburn is piecing things together, Georgia is falling apart. Give me Auburn to win and cover.

Alabama (-8) v Mississippi State

Neal: (REGRET PICK) *Bowl Ramifications **CBS Afternoon Choice ***Division Ramifications

Sep 5, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reggie Ragland (19) in game action against the Wisconsin Badgers at AT&T Stadium. Alabama won 35-17. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Starkvillle, MS Forecast: Open skies and sunny. No projected rain. Wind 6 mph. Cool temperature with low humidity.

Everything sets up for the Bulldogs. An Alabama letdown after stuffing rival LSU, a senior quarterback, a late afternoon game that will stretch into the night, enough emotional ammunition stockpiled in Starkville to start a border war, and more. Dak Prescott plays the game of his life and joins the likes of Stephen Garcia, Bo Wallace, Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton, and Chad Kelly.

Alabama 35 Mississippi State 38

Andrew: Could this be a potential trap game for the Crimson Tide? Alabama is the top dog of the conference, but the Bulldogs are playing as well as any team right now. I’m calling the upset here; just as soon as Alabama reclaims first place in the West, they lose it. Mississippi State rolls the Tide 27-24.

Ben R: There’s a lot of chatter about this being a trip up game for Alabama. I bought LSU last week, and I’m not doubting Alabama again this year. By the time Saturday comes around, I wouldn’t be surprised if this line was -9 or even -10, and I’d still take Alabama to win and cover. Side note, if Mississippi State wins, let’s start up the Dak for Heisman talk.

Ryan: Alabama covers this week. Exposes worst traits in Prescott. Prescott held under 100 yards total offense and throws two interceptions.

John: This game is going to go down to the wire. Alabama is coming off an emotional week and will come out flat against a team that will be insanely hyped to try to unseat the Tide. State keeps it close but Bama pulls it out.

Vanderbilt (-3.5) v Kentucky

Neal: *Bowl Ramifications

Nashville, TN Forecast: No clouds and sunny. No projected rain. Wind 6 mph. Cold temperature with low humidity.

Vegas likes Vandy, and I can see why. Vanderbilt has formidable defense when they’re locked in. The Commodores are playing at home, and Derek Mason would like a conference win. Give me the Dores at home, and to cover. Low scoring game.

Kentucky 13 Vanderbilt 17

Andrew: Vanderbilt is favored in an SEC match-up. Just let that sink in. Vandy’s defense stymies the Wildcats’ offense and wins a LOW scoring game, 14-10.

Ben R: Don’t be fooled by that game against Florida last week. Yes, Vanderbilt’s defense is that good, but Patrick Towles is a way better quarterback than Treon Harris. The weekend before, Vandy got trounced by Houston. I’d say Kentucky’s offense is somewhere in the middle, and they pull off the….upset? UK wins and covers.

Ryan: Vandy covers spread thanks to two lucky touchdown runs from Webb, Kentucky continues to look dreadful.

John: Wow. I did not think I would see Vandy favored in an SEC game this year. Patrick Towles has been beyond disappointing lately but so has Vandy’s offense (all season). Kentucky pulls the “upset”.

LSU (-7.5) v Arkansas

Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications ***Division Ramifications ****ESPN Primetime

Oct 31, 2015; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Alex Collins celebrates after rushing for a touchdown in the second half against the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas defeated UTM 63-28. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Baton Rouge, LA Forecast: Partly cloudy. No projected rain. Wind 10 mph. Cool to mild temperature with low humidity.

Arkansas is an interesting program right now. The offense they run, and their performance this year. They clearly appear to be playing their best ball as of right now, once again. This will be close, and I don’t look for LSU to cover. Give me the Tigers in a tight one.

Arkansas 28 LSU 31

Andrew: LSU got steamrolled last week, while Arkansas is winning games by way of laterals, 2-point conversions, and quadruple overtimes. I likeLSU just because of Fournette in the backfield, but it’ll be anything but a runaway: 27-21.

Ben R: Arkansas at home, and they, like Auburn, look more like we thought they would before the season started. LSU will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing game in Tuscaloosa. I think they’ll do enough to cover, but Arkansas gives them all they can handle. LSU wins, but Arkansas covers the 7.5 point spread.

Ryan: LSU wins but fails to cover against Arkansas. The Hogs again keeping their SEC contests extremely close.

John: This game will be close and scores will be harder to come by than expected. The score will be fairly low due to both team’s tendency to run the ball and that will shorten the game. LSU wins, Arkansas covers.

Missouri (-5.5) v BYU

Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications

Columbia, MO Forecast: No clouds. No projected rain. Wind 10 mph. Cold-cool temperature and very low humidity.

I hate having to pick against an SEC team, but Missouri has shown nothing this year. Sure they can keep BYU from scoring much, but can their offense really do enough to win the game? Give me the Cougars on the road in a decent one.

BYU 25 Missouri 19

Andrew: In the midst of the controversy at Missouri, the Tigers still have a football game to play this weekend. Mizzou has looked nothing like it has the past two seasons; I think the distractions will be too much to overcome for the Tigers on Saturday; BYU wins 23-14.

Ben R: I’m more surprised by this line than I am the UK Vandy line. I know injuries have hampered BYU, but they still sport a 1 point loss to UCLA, and wins over Nebraska and Boise State. We haven’t even began to mention the array of distractions for Missouri with all that is going on with their campus. Give me BYU to win and cover.

Ryan: Missouri players and team are fueled by social issues on campus and win the game against BYU but fail to cover the spread because they can’t score.

John: If Mizzou were undefeated, the distractions would be minimal. With their disappointing season, they’ll lose to BYU due to a lack of focus.

Next: SEC Heisman Hopefuls: The Shakeup

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