Tennessee Football: Contender or Pretender in 2016

As we continue the arduous task that is the college football offseason, we continue to preview the SEC football pretenders and contenders. Up next is the Tennessee football squad.

If you’ve been following along with our contender or pretender series, you know how this works. For those of you only discovering this due to your love for Tennessee football, let me break it down a bit for you. Being a contender has nothing to do with bowl games or being better or worse than the year before. If Tennessee football is to be considered a contender for the 2016 season, they must have a realistic shot at least winning the SEC East in 2016. To see how the other teams we have covered thus far stack up, check out the links below.

Many predicted big things for Tennessee football in 2015. As it turned out, though, Jim McElwain joining the Florida Gators made them to beat in the SEC East. After another dominating end to the season (much like in 2014), many are again expecting an SEC East title from Butch Jones and Co. Is that a realistic expectation?

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Tennessee Football (Contender)

After getting off to a slow start (3-4), Tennessee won their final 5 games of the regular season in 2015. They also dominated a Northwestern team that could have been in a New Year’s Six game to the tune of 45-6 to finish the year 9-4. Before you remind me that Tennessee football had a similar finish to their 2014 season, let me point out that Tennessee returns 18 starters this year.

The majority of those 18 returning starters for the Tennessee football team will be players recruited by Butch Jones. That makes a big difference for two reasons: 1. Every coach recruits players that fit their philosophy and 2. Tennessee football recruiting has seen a tremendous improvement under Butch Jones. Of those 18 returning starters, the offensive backfield is the most important.

Joshua Dobbs (671), Jalen Hurd (1,288) and Alvin Kamara (698) combined for over 2,600 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns last year for the Tennessee football team. You’d be hard pressed to find many rushing attacks better than the one owned by the Volunteers. If Dobbs can get his completion rate up just to around 65% (up from 59.6 in 2015), the Tennessee offense can be prolific. But what about the defense for the Tennessee football team?

Before a flood of lawsuits became the story of the Tennessee football offseason in 2016, the hiring of Bob Shoop was the biggest story. Shoop is a highly touted defensive coordinator that will likely continue to run a 4-3 scheme. During Shoop’s stops at Vanderbilt and Penn State, his defensive were aggressive and ranked near the top in both sacks and turnovers. Tennessee football fans have to be wondering what Shoop can do with Tennessee’s athletes after he turned Vanderbilt into a respectable defense during his tenure there.

A lot of this sounds similar to last year, though. What pitfalls possibly await the Volunteers in 2016?

Tennessee Football (Pretender)

Remember when I said it was a big deal that Tennessee was returning 18 starters in 2016? Uhh. It didn’t seem to help them much when they returned 17 starters in 2015.

Remember when I said Tennessee won their final 5 games of the regular season in 2015? Yeah, about that. The most impressive team they beat during that stretch was a South Carolina team fighting for Steve Spurrier. Yes, their back end of the schedule was that easy. After playing Alabama tough, the Volunteers didn’t play another team from the SEC that went to a bowl game. So aside from their bowl victory against Northwestern, it’s really tough to gauge how good this Tennessee team really was. Can their schedule derail their hopes yet again?

I doubt it. The Tennessee football team still schedules quality out of conference opposition, but no one is going to confuse 2016 Virginia Tech with 2015 Oklahoma. But, as Hugh Freeze can pay witness to, don’t doubt a Justin Fuente coached team. Their conference slate won’t be a gimme either, though.

A four game stretch from late September to October will tell us all we need to know about the Tennesee football team, as they once again end 2016 with 5 games that can already be chalked up as W’s. Beginning September 24th, the Volunteers will play the Florida Gators, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and wrap it up with a home game against Alabama before their bye week. If the Volunteers can split both pairs of games, you’re likely looking at your 2016 SEC East Champion. If they drop both of those first games, though, the Volunteers will be looking at another likely 8-4 finish and people will begin to wonder if Jones can get the job done.

On paper it’s hard not to like the Tennessee Volunteers in 2016. They play in a currently weak SEC East, return the an experienced quarterback and backfield and are loaded with talent. It’s really just the doubt surrounding Butch Jones’ ability to win the big games during the regular season that feeds the doubters.

Tennessee Football (The Verdict)

Tennessee plays in the SEC East. I know I’ve mentioned that a few times, but it is worth repeating. The division comes down to the Volunteers, Gators and Bulldogs. The other teams should be division wins for these three. If they can split those two games, which is entirely possible, who knows.

I’ve got a pretty strong record picking games. I won the Southbound and Down staff pick ’em in 2015, but my accuracy with Tennessee was spot on. I twice picked Tennessee to win 9 games in 2015, even going so far as to say they would need the bowl game to get there. I may not be perfect, but I continue to doubt that Jones can get it done against elite competition.

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Regardless of my doubt, though, Tennessee plays in the SEC East. Combined with all that talent, the Volunteers have to be considered a contender in 2016.