How Will SEC Baseball Fare in Regional Play?

NCAA Baseball Regionals have been announced, how will the 7 SEC Baseball teams fare, including the record 4 national seeds?

It is truly amazing that 7 SEC baseball teams have managed to make their way into the postseason for NCAA Baseball.  4 of those SEC baseball teams earned national seeds — a first for any conference.  Will 7 advance to the super regionals?  That is highly unlikely, so let’s look at who is most likely to advance.

First off, I have to give credit to reddit.com user RebelNutt18 for posting the most difficult regionals by the average RPI of the teams involved.  You can find that post here.  In summary, he found that SEC baseball teams did not catch a break.  The SEC baseball regionals ranked by overall difficulty follow, with the average RPI in parentheses.

Difficulty of SEC Baseball Regionals

1.  Starkville (34.5)

3.  Oxford (41.5)

4.  Nashville (41.75)

5.   Columbia  (44.5)

8.  College Station (46.75)

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10.  Baton Rouge (49.75)

14.  Gainesville (58.75)

So which teams stand the best chance to advance?  Each of these teams has obviously been through an SEC baseball season, so they’re used to playing against elite competition.  The Mississippi team each have a tall task, while the Bayou brethren have much easier tasks.  Let’s take a quick look at the competition and how likely the SEC baseball teams involved are to advance.

Starkville Regional:

Teams:  #1  Mississippi State (41-16-1), #2 Cal State Fullerton (35-21), #3 (Louisiana Tech 40-18), #4 Southeast Missouri State (39-19)

SEC Baseball Notes:  Mississippi State earned a national seed (#6), but they surely were not treated like it.  They’ll have to beat-out Southeast Missouri State, a team that was nearly capable of reaching 40 wins, on day one.  Cal State Fullerton is never a joke either. 

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Mississippi State Win Probability:  55%

The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in all of college baseball, but are playing in a stacked bracket.  John Cohen’s crew will need a strong weekend.

Oxford Regional

Teams:  #1  Ole Miss (43-17), #4  Utah (25-27), #3 Boston College (31-20) #2 Tulane (39-19)

SEC Baseball Notes:  Some thought Ole Miss was more deserving of a national seed than LSU, and the had to be wishing they could switch after seeing the respective brackets.  Tulane is legit and Utah got in despite a losing record by winning their conference.

Ole Miss Win Probability:  60%  Unlike Mississippi State’s bracket, only one other team (Tulane) has a legitimate chance at advancing beyond this bracket.

Nashville Regional:  

Teams:  #1 Vanderbilt (43-17), #4 Xavier (30-28), #3 Wright State (44-15), #2 Ohio State (43-18-1)

SEC Baseball Notes:  While some thought Ole Miss was deserving of a national seed, others thought it should be Vanderbilt.  That just shows just how deep SEC baseball was this year.

Vanderbilt Win Probability:  65%  Vanderbilt is clearly the best team and Ohio State can be discounted due to their playing Big 10 Baseball.

Columbia Regional

Teams:  #1  South Carolina (42-15), #2 UNCW (39-17), #3 Duke (33-22), #4 Rhode Island (30-25)

SEC Baseball Notes:  I think the RPI may be misleading in this bracket.  I think this bracket is very winnable for South Carolina

South Carolina Win Probability:  75%  You tell me who else is going to win this thing.

College Station Regional:

Teams:  #1 Texas A&M (45-14), #2 Minnesota (34-20), #3 Wake Forest 34-25), Binghamton (30-23)

SEC Baseball Notes:  Quick shoutout to the ACC because I think it’d be an upset if Minnesota beat Wake Forest in their day one matchup.

Texas A&M Win Probability:  70%  The Aggies have had some cold weekends this year.  If they go cold after being hot in the SEC baseball tournament, trouble could brew quickly. 

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Baton Rouge Regional

Teams:  #1  LSU (42-18), #2 Rice (35-22), #3 Southeastern Louisiana (39-19), #4 Utah Valley (37-21)

SEC Baseball Notes:  Again unrelated to the SEC.  Shoutout to Lousiana (no surprise) and Utah (wait, what?) for being well represented in the NCAA Baseball Championship.

LSU Win Probability:   70%  LSU would have higher odds but I have a lot of respect for Rice and Southeastern Louisiana.  The reason it isn’t lower, though, is they’ll just need to win one against them, as they’ll win handily against Utah Valley.

Gainesville Regional:

Teams:   #1 Florida (47-13), #2 Georgia Tech (36-23), Uconn (37-23), # 4 Bethune-Cookman (29-25)

SEC Baseball Notes:  The Gators sputtered down the stretch in SEC baseball (by their standards), but catch a break as they’ll just need to pick up a game against Georgia Tech or Uconn

Florida Win Probability:  80%  If the Gators return to being hot, they won’t need a third game.