Do you have your NCAA Tournament bracket filled out yet? Well we’re going to help you predict the SEC winners this year.
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Every year it’s the same thing, right? Fill out brackets. Get your hopes up. Have said hopes dashed by the likes of teams like Mercer, Dayton or VCU.
Is it possible there’s a reason why your brackets are always busted? Author Nate Silver thinks so.
Silver is the author of the bestselling book, “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don’t”, and has a theory about not only predictions in sports, but in all walks of life.
I wonder if this book shouldn’t be mandatory reading for meteorologists.
In any case, don’t go into your brackets blind, and Silver’s book is absolutely an eye-opener.
Silver is also the founder and editor of FiveThirtyEight.com, one of the ESPN.com partner sites, and it was exactly one year ago today that 538 and ESPN joined forces.
About the book and Silver from publisher, Penguin Books:
"Now in paperback, just in time for the one year anniversary of the re-launch of 538 in the wake of his high profile move to ESPN, with a new preface on the state of Big Data in the aftermath of his own astounding 2012 election prediction and this book’s wildly successful hardcover publication, revered forecaster Nate Silver investigates how well we can predict what’s going to happen next in THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t. THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE introduces us to the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from weather to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Silver explains and evaluates how these forecasters think, and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success?Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? What can we learn from those patterns? And are their forecasts really right?Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. Sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters, but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science."
Time to take the delete key to my own bracket and use a little of Mr. Silver’s advice before I hit “save”. Maybe I won’t tear mine up before the Sweet 16 is even set this year.
Next: Mapping Potential NCAA Travel Routes for SEC Tourney Teams