LSU: Can the Tigers Claw to an SEC Championship?

When media, coaches, and players assembled in Birmingham, Alabama for the 2015 SEC Media Days, they predicted the winner of the SEC Championship Game as well as divisional winners. The top finishers in both the SEC East and West have been covered so far in this series.

Georgia (166), Auburn (108) and Alabama (92) ran away with the first place division votes. Tennessee (36) was far behind, but also fairly well ahead of most of the other teams in the SEC. The next closest team was Missouri (20). After Missouri, no team received more than 10 first place division votes (LSU).

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LSU receiving the third most first place votes to win their division may be a surprise to some. LSU lost 5 games last year for only the second time in Les Miles tenure, which is not something that usually instills confidence. LSU faithful also saw their defensive coordinator jump ship to Texas A&M and suffered through a 2014 plagued by a lack of quality quarterback play. It would seem people should be wondering if Miles could be nearing the hot seat, not if the Tigers can win the SEC West.

But LSU gets the nod here based on the prior success of Les Miles. The Mad Hatter has been at LSU for 10 seasons and has averaged slightly better than 10 wins per season. Miles has earned the respect of the media, though many fans remain skeptical. If you are a hater or supporter, there is evidence to support both in his SEC Head Coach Evaluation from this site.

Regardless, LSU is predicted to finish third in the West. That is our focus here. What needs to go right for LSU to sneak into the SEC Championship? What could happen to wreck the season to the point where Miles is legitimately on the hot seat?

What Needs to go Right . . .

After opening with McNeese State, LSU immediately has two tests in the division. First they must travel to Starkville and then host Auburn. At an absolute minimum, LSU needs to split those games to remain in contention for the SEC West Division Title. LSU must also split two tough road games in Tuscaloosa and Oxford. The LSU-Alabama game

Nov 27, 2014; College Station, TX, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Les Miles before a game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

has been among the most hard hitting games of the schedule each year for the past few seasons. LSU will not have time to heal as they must immediately play their two rivalry games back to back. After first playing Alabama, LSU will be in prime position to fall victim to Arkansas’s power running game in the Battle for the Golden Boot. Immediately following that, LSU travels to Ole Miss for the Magnolia Bowl. LSU was done no favors by the scheduling gods. In addition to splitting games and hoping for health, LSU must find consistent quarterback play and have Kevin Steel be a quality defensive coordinator in his first year to have a chance at winning the SEC West in 2015.

What Could go Wrong . . .

Quarterback. Defensive coordinator. Schedule. Take your pick. LSU could continue to struggle at the quarterback position, costing the Tigers games they would likely otherwise be able to win. Kevin Steele could be a decent defensive coordinator, but is in all likelihood a step down from the veteran John Chavis. LSU’s defense has won the team games they had no business even being competitive in; that could change this season. They could also split two early games and two rivalry games, plus gain a loss to Alabama, Texas A&M, or Florida. Those would pile up and eliminate LSU from contention in the SEC West. LSU will have a dominant running game, as they almost always do, but that is about the only certainty for the Tigers in 2015.

Worth Considering . . .

LSU, along with a handful of other SEC teams, is a program that consistently schedules big name out of conference opponents. This is not the heyday of Ernie Davis and Syracuse simply does not meet the typical clout of LSU’ opponent. It can be argued whether or not that works in LSU’s favor, but it is definitely of note.

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A few years ago, the level of running game LSU will have in 2015 would have made them much scarier than it does in 2015. Texas A&M was not in the conference. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State had not yet made the strides they made in 2014. Auburn is a cyclical program right now, alternating between conference championships and mediocre seasons. The only constant is Alabama. One has to wonder if the game may be starting to pass Les Miles by and what he will do in 2015 and beyond for LSU to retake their claim as an annual conference favorite.

LSU could easily determine which team wins the SEC West by splitting the games between Auburn and Alabama (or two other teams). But winning the division is highly unlikely without a ton of help. With all the uncertainty, I would not put money down that they would even finish third or better.

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