Arkansas Football: Can the Razorbacks Rush to a Title?

When media, coaches, and players assembled in Birmingham, Alabama for the 2015 SEC Media Days, the media predicted the winner of the SEC Championship game as well as divisional winners. The top three finishers in both the SEC East and West have been covered so far in this series.

Georgia (166), Auburn (108) and Alabama (92) ran away with the first place division votes. Tennessee (36) was far behind, but also fairly well ahead of most of the other teams in the SEC. The next closest team was Missouri (20). After Missouri, no team received more than 10 first place division votes (LSU).

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Arkansas (6) leads the rest of the SEC teams, though none of them are viewed as serious threats to win their division by the media. While Arkansas is a trendy Top 25 pick, they are not viewed as a legitimate contender to win the SEC West.

Arkansas finished 2014 on an impressive run, winning 4 or their last 6. Their wins during that stretch included LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas. An impressive list that has caused fans and media pundits to call for a Razorback rise in 2015.

Their losses during that same stretch were not bad either, losing at Mississippi State and at SEC East Champion Missouri. A big reason many are still skeptical about Arkansas in 2015 is that they have still yet to win an SEC road game under Bret Bielema.

In order for Arkansas to have a chance at winning the SEC West in 2015, the Razorbacks must learn to win conference games on the road. Maintaining the dominance established at home to close 2014 must also be on the top of Arkansas’ list of priorities.

What else needs to go right for Arkansas to challenge for the SEC crown? What could go so wrong that even a predicted 4^th place finish in the SEC West seems generous in hindsight?

What Needs to go Right . . .

As already stated, the Razorbacks have a 0% chance of winning the SEC West unless they learn to win conference games on the road. That will not be easy, though, as they must travel to Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU. Arkansas splitting these games is the most realistic possibility and what they must achieve at a minimum to contend for the SEC West crown. That means they will already have two losses, though, and must pull off an undefeated

Dec 29, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Brandon Allen (10) during the game against the Texas Longhorns in the 2014 Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

season at home as they host Missouri, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. I’m not sure which is easier: splitting their four road games or beating those three at home. Such is life in the SEC. For Arkansas to have a chance at pulling off either, a few things must happen. Brandon Allen must maintain his efficiency at quarterback (20 TDs, 5 INTs in 2014) and raise his completion rate from 56%. Not turning the ball over is great; finding the open receiver on busted plays is even better. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins will need to produce another pair 1,000 yard seasons as well. This is doable, as Arkansas returns 4 of their 5 lineman. Lastly, the defense must maintain its level of play with new starters. Arkansas shut out both LSU and Ole Miss at the end of 2014 but lost key contributors such as Trey Flowers, Darious Philon, and Martrell Spaight. Finding quality replacements early is a must.

What Could go Wrong . . .

The biggest roadblock for Arkansas reaching Atlanta in 2014 would be the team growing stale or regressing. If Brandon Allen were to fail to develop further or regress by trying to improve his draft stock, the Razorback are in trouble. If Collins and Williams play behind a line that experienced some off season shuffling and does not gel as well as it once did, you guessed it. The Razorbacks are in trouble. If the defense’s dominant stretch to end 2014 was an anomaly and not the new standard, the Razorbacks are in trouble. I do not foresee Allen or the rushing attack regressing. It is hard, however, to envision the defense maintaining the level of play they had to close 2014. While many teams are breaking in new quarterbacks in the SEC West, Arkansas does not play any of them until week 6 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. By that time, all the teams in the SEC West should have entrenched starters and the Razorbacks could be in trouble. Going back to the biggest possibility of what could go wrong: a continued failure to win SEC road games. It is a problem, but one that will not be easily remedied in 2015. Arkansas may not be favored in a single SEC road game they play this year. Even if they are, it likely will not be by much. If they fail to win any of these games, the narrative will read Arkansas cannot win on the road. Reality will be Arkansas has improved but not to the level of competing for the SEC Championship.

Worth Considering . . .

Arkansas has been one dimensional since the arrival of Bret Bielema. This has not seemed to matter much, though, as Collins and Williams each had 12 rushing touchdowns to go along with clearing 1,000 yards in 2014.

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Expectations are unclear for Arkansas in 2015. Some have them pegged as the dark horse contender in the SEC; others think they will finish at the bottom of the SEC West yet again under Bielema. The media settling at fourth for the Razorbacks seems to be a reflection of that as well.

I do not think Arkansas beats the preseason top two in the SEC West (Alabama and Auburn). LSU could be a different story, but it is an away game. That pushes the result in LSU’s favor. Ole Miss will also likely be favored at home. Tennessee is much improved from a year ago and MSU did not lose as much talent as people think. While Arkansas will no doubt be an improved team in 2015, thier win-loss total may look very similar to what it was in 2014. Such is life in the SEC.

Arkansas will be improved, but not to the point of being a SEC Championship challenger.

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