5dimes has set the over/under for Tennessee football wins in 2016 at 10.5– and it scares me to death.
The question isn’t whether or not Tennessee has the talent to get to the next level. They’ve got the talent in every aspect, and now they’ve got the experience too. Last year was a rough year in terms of heartbreaking losses for Vols fans, and no such heartbreaks can take place this year if they are to cover the 10.5 wins.
A look at the odds shows that the Vols are favored to win 10 or less games. Taking the under pays -160 while taking the over pays +120. My initial reaction says that those odds aren’t good enough to take the over, but the talent Tennessee possesses on both sides of the ball doesn’t make me feel good about taking the under either. Having to bet 160 dollars to win 100 dollars doesn’t do anything to make me feel better about taking the under.
It is real easy to question Butch Jones as a head coach, and it is by all means his own fault. The players escaped blame in losses to Florida and Oklahoma, and you could easily make the argument that Tennessee should have won those games in 2015. Had they won those games, they would’ve finished the season with 11 wins, and in this particular over/under from 5dimes, bowl games and conference championships do count.
If Butch Jones learned from his mistakes last year, this could be a very dangerous team. If Joshua Dobbs is able to throw the ball with better than a 60 percent completion rate, then I think we could be talking SEC Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff. In every year under Coach Jones, Tennessee teams have improved by 2 wins: 5 in 2013, 7 in 2014, 9 in 2015. So, 11 in 2016? Let’s take a look at the schedule and break down our projected Tennessee wins and losses game by game.
Related: Kentucky Football: Over/Under 6 Wins
Related: Georgia Football: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
Tennessee Football 2016 Schedule
Appalachian State– Remember that time Appalachian State beat Michigan in the Big House? Yeah, I don’t see that happening in Knoxville. Tennessee wins.
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- Alabama vs. Ole Miss: Line, Prediction, TV Channel & Live Stream for SEC Football
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Virginia Tech
– In case you haven’t heard, Virginia Tech and Tennessee are playing this game on the infield of Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee. This is slated to be a primetime game on ABC, and let us not forget the whooping VT put on Ohio State in
. We should get a taste of whether or not Tennessee is bringing an elite defense to the 2016 season as Virginia Tech now has offensive guru Justin Fuente as their head coach. I see Tennessee winning a closer-than-anticipated game that draws huge numbers for ABC and gets the nation talking about Tennessee.
Ohio – Tennessee works out the kinks that kept the game against Virginia Tech closer than it should have been as they prepare for the Gators. Win.
Florida – It has been pointed out many times that UT has not beaten the University of Florida since 2004. This game is so hard to pick preseason, especially with so many questions left to be answered by the Gators. I think this is the year Tennessee gets the monkey off their back, and they beat the Gators in another instant classic. Side bet: Jalen Hurd emerges as a Heisman candidate after this game.
@Georgia – News of Sony Michel’s injury doesn’t do anything to make me feel better about Georgia being smart and slowly re-introducing Nick Chubb to the field. I think Dobbs goes crazy and 6’6″ wide receiver Jeff George has a break out game. Remember that name. Tennessee wins by 3.
@Texas A&M– This is game 3 in a 4-game stretch that is borderline unfair. I think Texas A&M has been written off too early by most people, and I think a John Chavis defense will sneak up on Dobbs and make him look pedestrian while Hurd puts forth a valiant effort. Despite A&M’s unknowns, I’m picking an Aggie upset as Tennessee gets caught looking to their next game.
Alabama – Tennessee seems to ALWAYS play Alabama close, and this is the year they get it done at Neyland Stadium. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut, because I believe Tennessee will be the underdog in this game, possibly by a touchdown or more if Alabama is rolling.
Saturday Blitz
@South Carolina
– Even during the worst of years in Gainesville, South Carolina Head Coach Will Muschamp never lost to Tennessee. He finds out what it is like to lose to the Volunteers as the Vols roll through Columbia.
Tennessee Tech – Tennessee Win.
Kentucky – As stated in Kentucky’s over/under article, if Tennessee drops some of the big games early in the season, they could be coming into this game less than motivated, and I think Kentucky could sneak up on Tennessee. However, I see Tennessee with only 1-loss to this point, and working on the best season they’ve had in decades. Kentucky gets Vol’d over in an easy win for Tennessee.
Missouri – Barry Odom’s defense gives the Volunteer offense more trouble than anticipated, but Tennessee wins. If you’re reading this article with any gambling intentions, this is a sneaky game to make some coin off of taking Mizzou to cover if they’ve proven they have any semblance of an offense. The under looks enticing as well.
@ Vanderbilt – Derek Mason gets crushed in his farewell game. Side bet: Consider throwing your lunch money on a bet that Evan Berry and/or Cameron Sutton score a defensive or special teams touchdown.
SEC Championship Game – At this point, Tennessee will be entering the SEC Championship with an 11-1 record. Common thinking would say that they will be playing Alabama or LSU, and I don’t like Tennessee’s chances against either with the stakes this high. Not to mention, I’m presuming every one of my picks are right, and I don’t see Butch Jones and Tennessee beating Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide twice in one season.
Really, 11 Wins?
Even I can’t believe I’ve got Tennessee winning 11 games, but after looking at it, it is not impossible. They have a horrendous 4 game stretch starting with Florida and ending with Alabama. Even if I’m wrong, and they split those 4 games going 2-2, I can’t see them losing any other games outside of those 4. Maybe Virginia Tech sneaks up on them, but I’m not betting on it.
1 of 2 things will happen in my opinion. They win 11 games during the regular season, lose the SEC Championship game, and like so many other SEC teams in this situation, they will not get up for their bowl game. Despite it being their best season in decades, Tennessee fans will yet again feel as if they could’ve done more.
The other scenario in mind is if they do lose 2 of those 4 games, there is a very real chance UF or UGA will represent the SEC East in the SEC Championship game. Without the heartbreak of missing an opportunity to make the College Football Playoff, Tennessee goes into their bowl game with 10 wins against an inferior opponent, and they get their 11th win.
Next: Are We Expecting too Much from Tennessee Football in 2016?
Apparently, I’m taking Tennessee to have 11 wins this year, and maybe I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am. 11 wins seems like a big number for Tennessee to achieve, but if Butch Jones and the Vols continue their trend of increasing win totals year by year, 11 wins should be expected. If I was given money, and forced to pick Tennessee’s over/under, I’d take Tennessee and the over for +120. Then I’d just hope Joshua Dobbs passing accuracy finally begins to match his athleticism to help him reach his perceived potential.