SEC Media Days/ SEC Recruiting: Stars = Wins

Alabama, LSU, Florida and Georgia fans love to brag about SEC recruiting, while other fans in the SEC praise player development.  As it turns out, those that believe winning SEC recruiting  wars is the key to success are on to something.

We’ve heard countless coaches say things along the line of ‘it takes great players’, ‘great player make great coaches’, and ‘that wasn’t what I drew up, he/she just made something happen’.  It’s true in every sport.  We may as well begin counting SEC recruiting as a sport as well.

With all the talk of Jeffery Simmons during Mississippi State’s turn at SEC Media Days, I couldn’t help but wonder how much start players really impacted their team’s success of failure.  I came up with a simple idea — I’m not the most tech or metric savvy — to test the idea that in the world of SEC recruiting, stars = wins.

Here’s how I did it.  I began with looking up each SEC coach’s average recruiting class and decided it was best to eliminate the SEC East from this discussion.  The SEC West has a much more tenured group of coaches who play each other every year.  While each SEC West coach is at least entering his fourth year at his respective school, the SEC East has had an influx of new coaches over the past few seasons and their numbers are bound to be skewed.

More from SEC Recruiting

• Ole Miss Basketball: 3-star PG Amaree Abram commits to Rebels
• SEC Recruiting: Auburn, South Carolina included in Top 6 for 5-star PF GG Jackson
• SEC Recruiting: 5 SEC teams included in Top 7 for 4-star S Joenel Aguero
• Alabama Football: 5-star CB Jahlil Hurley commits to Crimson Tide
• Arkansas Football: 4-star EDGE Quincy Rhodes Jr commits to Razorbacks

Next I found the winning percentage of each coach in the SEC West, and I think you’ll find the results as interesting as I do.  It is amazing how much SEC recruiting impacts SEC success.  The SEC recruiting rankings were found by taken the average rank of a class while their current coach was there, then ordered from best to worst.

SEC West Recruiting Rankings 

-from Saturday Down South

1. Nick Saban, Alabama: 2.9
2. Les Miles, LSU: 7.3
3. Gus Malzhan, Auburn: 8.3
4. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: 11.8
5. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: 18.6
6. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: 24.6
7. Bret Bielema, Arkansas: 25

To the surprise of no one, Nick Saban is leading the charge in SEC recruiting.  Les Miles being number two isn’t surprising, while Gus being third does raise a few eyebrows.  Outside of the top 3, things seem to reasonably fall in place.

SEC West Coaches Winning Percentage

1. Nick Saban, Alabama: .854
2. Les Miles, LSU: .778
3. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: .692 
4. Gus Malzhan, Auburn: .675
5. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: .654
6. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: .611 
7. Bret Bielema, Arkansas: .474 

The key thing to note here is only two coaches (Sumlin/Malzahn) win at a different rate than their recruiting suggests they would.  Recruiting wins SEC football games.  Period.

must read: http://southboundanddown.com/2016/07/12/missouri-football-ou-of-6-games-in-2016-is-too-high/

While some coaches on this list are trending in different directions than the current placing would lead one to believe the time each has had at his school gives us an accurate look at how important SEC recruiting is.  Some coaches have seen their winning percentage begin to rise recently and I would venture to bet their average recruiting class has risen as well.

The next time you want to brag about how stars don’t matter and your favorite coach develops players — think again.  Guys that have made it the NFL, coaching awards and peer respect don’t matter one bit in the world of the SEC.  What does matter?  Winning.  How do you get there?  Recruiting.