Ed Orgeron will have a tough time sustaining LSU football success in 2020

Ed Orgeron was the toast of the SEC in 2019, but that might be tough to repeat

LSU head coach Ed Orgeron pulled his team together for an unprecedented run to the national championship in 2019. The LSU Tigers were hardly challenged all year, and former quarterback Joe Burrow had perhaps the greatest season by a college quarterback ever seen.

While success generally breeds more success in the SEC, Orgeron may find pulling a repeat — or anything close to it — very difficult to do this season.

Every program has to deal with player and personnel losses during an offseason, but the mass exodus of talent and quality staff might be too much for Orgeron and the Tigers to overcome in 2020.

Besides losing Joe Burrow, which would be enough to make most coaches cringe after a season like he had, the Tigers are losing nearly all of their primary offensive weapons.

Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is now wearing a Kansas City Chiefs uniform.

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be wearing Minnesota Vikings purple instead of LSU’s.

Tight end Thaddeus Moss is a member of the Washington Redskins.

On the offensive line, Orgeron is faced with replacing two of the best offensive linemen in the nation in Lloyd Cushenberry and Saahdiq Charles, both now in the NFL. Damien Lewis and Adrian Magee are both done with school, which means the only returning starter on the line will be right tackle Austin Deculus.

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But perhaps the biggest loss of all on offense didn’t see a minute of on-field game action, and that’s former passing coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Joe Brady, who has also traded in his Saturdays for Sundays when it comes to coaching.

Say what you want about the good coaching job Ed Orgeron did, it was Brady who transformed the Tigers offense and brought out nearly every ounce of potential from Joe Burrow. If stats don’t lie, he’s a true testament to that fact.

Joe Burrow in 2018 at LSU without Joe Brady:

219-of-379 (57.8 pct), 2,894 yards, 7.6 yards per attempt, 16 TDs, and 5 INTs.

Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU with Joe Brady:

401-of-527 (76.3 pct), 5,671 yards, 10.8 yards per attempt, 60 TDs, 6 INTs.

Brady raised the LSU passing offense from No. 67 in the nation and only 228.5 yards per game in 2018, to No. 2 in the nation at 401.6 yards per game in 2019. Only Mike Leach’s Washington State air raid offense finished higher.

That’s a huge hole to plug.

And speaking of plugging holes, the attrition on LSU’s defense has been nearly as bad as the offense this offseason. The Tigers are losing many key defensive components on a squad who finished the season looking like the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Safety Grant Delpit, and linebackers K’Lavon Chaisson, Patrick Queen, and Jacob Phillips – all gone.

And, like Joe Brady on offense, a key member of the defensive staff is now gone with Dave Aranda leaving to take the head coach position at Baylor.

All total, LSU has lost 14 starters, two coordinators, and a bevy of other key coaching assistants.

Ed Orgeron has a task bigger than Nick Saban’s

Some would point to the success of Nick Saban at Alabama overcoming such huge player losses and staff turnover, but that was only after he had some sustained success. Had Saban lost most of his key staff and players after his first championship, who knows how things might have gone for Alabama.

If you want to draw a closer parallel to Orgeron and LSU, then go a little further east in Alabama.

The last time a team went on an unprecedented rise and run to the championship with a quarterback who set records and ended up as the number one overall pick — Auburn and Cam Newton, in 2010. The similarities to that Auburn team (beyond the mascot name) are uncanny.

2010 was Gene Chizik’s second year as the Auburn head coach, and with him, he brought offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and defensive coordinator Ted Roof.

After that championship season, Newton went on to the start of his NFL career.

His former Auburn team limped out of the 2011 season with an 8-5 record.

That Auburn team lost not only Newton — who personally accounted for 65 percent of the Tigers’ total offense — but 14 other starters as well.

The whole scenario sounds eerily familiar and should have LSU fans concerned.

History isn’t on the side of Ed Orgeron either. With few exceptions, national champions who lose a key starting quarterback have often taken big falls the following season much like the 2010-to-2011 Auburn tumble after Cam Newton’s departure.

In 2005, Texas won a national championship with Vince Young at quarterback, finishing second in the nation in passing yards per game. In 2006, with Colt McCoy at the helm, they finished ranked No. 13, with the 26th best passing game in the country.

In 2007, LSU rode the arm of Matt Flynn to a national title and a top 35 passing game. The following season with Jarrett Lee under center they went 8-5 and couldn’t even crack the top 60 in passing.

Even Clemson, who seems to have one great starting quarterback after another under Dabo Swinney, had a fall from grace after the 2016 championship led by Deshaun Watson. The Tigers made it back to the playoffs (eliminated in the semifinal round) in 2017, but dropped from 33rd to 76th nationally in passing.

Ed Orgeron is a quality coach and can rally team unity like few college leaders in the nation. But he’s not a miracle worker, and for the Tigers to sustain their 2019 success given the player and personnel losses they’ve suffered, it would be nothing short of miraculous.