Vanderbilt Football will begin the season 6-1, Here’s why

Vanderbilt football will be much better than people think this year. Last year saw the Commodores win two SEC games in one season for the first time since 2018 to finish 5-7 overall, and expect them to improve on this.

On defense, the Commodores return last season’s second-leading tackler, CJ Taylor, at linebacker who totaled 59 tackles and strong safety, De’Rickey Wright, who had three interceptions to go along with fifty five tackles last season.

On offense, look no further than the quarterback-wide receiver combination of AJ Swann and Will Sheppard. Swann made nine appearances for the Commodores last season, splitting time with Mike Wright who has since transferred to Mississippi State. This makes the job all Swann’s who should have even more confidence going into his sophomore season after gaining valuable experience. Swann threw for 1,274 yards last season, including ten touchdowns with only two interceptions. Sheppard led the team with nine touchdown receptions last season to go along with his 776 receiving yards. Look for this duo to cause a lot of havoc for SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt football also has an X-factor that is unaccounted for. And that’s third-year head coach and Vanderbilt alumnus, Clark Lea. Lea played fullback at Vanderbilt from 2002-2004 and is resurrecting a program that went 0-8 in 2020 under former head coach Derek Mason. Players seem to have bought in as Lea improved the team to 5-7 in his second year after going 2-10 in his first in 2021. Not only did he play at the school, but Lea is a Nashville native. So, unlike previous Commodore head coaches, this should bode well for the team as the hope is Lea has an even stronger sense of the history and culture at the university that should help to propel them.

Here are my predictions on how Vanderbilt football will fare game-by-game in 2023:

Vanderbilt Football 2023 Game-By-Game Predictions

Hawaii (Nashville, TN) – Last year, the Commodores handled Hawaii easily on the road 63-10. Mike Wright was the starter for the Commodores in this one and showed his dual-threat presence. Swann is not as much of a dual threat, but a very good pure pocket passer, so the offense should look a bit different, but expect the same production. The one difference that could impact for this one is that the Commodores do not even have to play it on the road this year – they are at home in Nashville. So now, the Rainbow Warriors are the ones having to deal with the time change. Even if they handle it well, based off last year, do not expect the Commodores to face much of a challenge in this one. They will take the game 55-0.

Alabama A&M (Nashville, TN) – Coming off last week’s dominating performance against Hawaii, expect more of the same as Vanderbilt takes on FCS opponent, Alabama A&M, defeating them 49-3. These first two games will hopefully allow the Commodores to iron some things out on both sides of the ball as they approach the meat of their schedule.

Wake Forest (Winston-Salem, NC) – Many will deem this matchup a battle of two of the “smart schools” as Vanderbilt and Wake Forest are two schools in the FBS that traditionally boast more about their academic requirements than football records. This year will be different though with both teams presumably entering the matchup 2-0, and both with momentum building in their programs over the last few seasons. Demon Deacons head coach, Dave Clawson, enters his tenth season with the school with an 8-5 record last season. Last year’s matchup between the two in Nashville saw the Demon Deacons defeat the Commodores 45-25. That however was with quarterback Sam Hartman at the helm who has since transferred to Notre Dame. So, with quarterback probably still being a question mark for the Deacons entering this one, it will not be for the Commodores. Expect the Swann-Sheppard duo to propel Vanderbilt to a 24-21 win in an entertaining game.

UNLV (Las Vegas, NV) – Former Missouri head coach, Barry Odom, is now the head coach of the UNLV Rebels who will play host to the Commodores in their final non-conference game before they hit SEC play. Given the rough history of the Commodores in SEC matchups, which makes this one crucial for the overall win-loss record at seasons end. Dating back to 2020, the two schools have strikingly similar records as both went winless in 2020, 2-10 in 2021 and 5-7 in 2022. Expect Vanderbilt to take this one in a tough road test 35-21 as they will be 4-0 going into SEC play.

Kentucky (Nashville, TN) – Like Vanderbilt, expect Kentucky to be much-improved this season with a trio of strong receivers and starting quarterback and NC State transfer, Devin Leary. The firepower Kentucky will have will prove too much to handle for the Commodores handing them their first loss of the season 42-21. Still, 4-1 at this point is a record I am sure Clark Lea and the Commodores will walk away happy with heading into week six.

Missouri (Nashville, TN) – Luckily for the Commodores, they’ll get to stay home for another week as they take on the Missouri Tigers who have struggled mightily in recent years under head coach Eli Drinkwitz who is entering his fourth season with the school coming off of back-to-back 6-7 campaigns. Drinkwitz is undoubtedly squarely on the hot seat entering the season for the Tigers. Last season was a close contest in Columbia, Missouri with the Tigers edging out the Commodores 17-14. This will bode well for Vanderbilt’s confidence knowing this year is at home and they will be able to ride the energy of the crowd as they look to avenge last years close loss. The Commodores will win this one 24-21. Close victories against the Tigers and Demon Deacons should leave Vanderbilt football battle tested as they progress further into SEC play heading into Gainesville next week to take on the Gators.

Florida (Gainesville, FL) – The Florida Gators will undoubtedly be favored heading into this one, but are rebuilding themselves under second year head coach, Billy Napier. Do not think Lea will excuse away a loss just because they are on the road in Gainesville like previous Vanderbilt team mindsets may have been. Lea got his first signature win for the Commodores last year in Nashville against these same Gators 31-24. Expect the Commodores to shock the Gators for the second year in a row with a high-flying passing attack, while the Gators struggle to find a presence at quarterback. This will move the Commodores to 6-1 on the season and without question should lead to a top twenty-five ranking.

Georgia (Nashville, TN) – Riding high on momentum, which is what the Commodores will need if they expect to give the two-time defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs any kind of challenge as they return home. The rare sellout crowd in Nashville will give the Commodores juice for the first quarter or so but expect the Bulldogs to find their groove and pull away beating the Commodores 41-3. The true test will not be this game for the Commodores, but how they can respond to the loss at home after they were riding high going in.

Ole Miss (Oxford, MS) – Ole Miss has arguably the deepest quarterback room in the SEC heading into the season. So by this point in the year, whoever has taken the reigns for them should have a firm grasp on head coach Lane Kiffin’s traditionally high-powered offense. Expect the Commodores to struggle in a tough SEC environment dropping this one 35-10. This will put them at 6-3 on the season, which is still a far cry from Vanderbilt football records by this point in the season in previous years. It will be two straight losses however and have the Commodores searching for answers.

Auburn (Nashville, TN) – In their last home game of the season, The Commodores will defeat the Auburn Tigers 17-10 riding the energy of their defense in this low-scoring affair. Much like Napier and the Gators in Napier’s first season in 2022, first year Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze will fall the same way losing to the Commodores in Nashville in his first season. Freeze has shown historically to be a great coach but has a lot of things to fix down on the plains. And with this being his first season, expect Clark Lea and the Commodores to pounce on it and take this one. 7-3 will have the whole city buzzing with excitement as the Commodores hit the road for their final two games of the regular season. And yes – they will be bowl eligible already at this point.

South Carolina (Columbia, SC) – Starting South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler  will be in his second season starting with the Gamecocks, and third overall after starting a handful of games in his freshman and sophomore seasons at the University of Oklahoma. The Gamecocks have a tough schedule in 2023 and will be battle-tested just like the Commodores heading into this one. Rattler should be able to lead the offense past the Commodores in this one as they will be motivated to have their best season yet under head coach Shane Beamer who is heading into his third season at the school. The Gamecocks will stifle the Commodores on offense, as well and take this one 35-6.

Tennessee (Knoxville, TN) – There is nothing like facing your in-state rival on Thanksgiving weekend in the SEC. And an underwhelming Tennessee team will have the Commodores walking into Knoxville feeling like they have a chance. AJ Swann will keep it close for the Commodores in this one, but they will fall 35-24 and wrap up their regular season at 7-5.

7-5 will probably be the talk of the SEC at the end of the season – because it’s Vanderbilt. This would be the teams best record since 2012 and 2013 when they went 9-4 in each of those campaigns. Before that, the highest win total was seven games in 2008 and then all the way back to 1975 for the Commodores. Look for the Commodores to build off this 7-5 campaign even more in 2024.