Why the Florida Gators will beat Tennessee, but finish 2023 at 6-6

Florida Gators football goes into the 2023 season with head coach Billy Napier in his second year. In his first season, the Gators finished a disappointing 6-7. It is worth noting that in Napier’s first year in 2018 as head coach for the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, Napier went 7-7. The following three seasons Napier went a combined 33-5.

Napier led the Ragin Cajuns to back-to-back Sun Belt conference titles. With that being said, it is much tougher sledding in the SEC.

On offense, the Gators bring in Wisconsin transfer quarterback Graham Mertz who was recently named the starting quarterback beating out Ohio State transfer Jack Miller III who is in his second season with the Gators. During his four years at Wisconsin, Mertz threw for 5,405 yards, thirty-eight touchdowns and twenty-six interceptions. These are not eye-popping numbers. And combined with what many viewed as a sub-par spring game from the quarterback spot, this is one of the reasons many are not high on the Gators this year.

Running back should be a strength for the Gators as they return Trevor Etienne who appeared in thirteen games for the Gators last year rushing for seven hundred nineteen yards and six touchdowns in his freshman season. Joining him in the backfield is junior Montrell Johnson who appeared in thirteen games for the Gators as well last season and played in fourteen games under Coach Napier in 2021 for the Ragin Cajuns before following his coach to Gainesville. During his first two seasons in FBS, Johnson has run for a combined 1,679 yards and twenty-three touchdowns. Cam Carroll is the third back of the trio who has spent the last five seasons at Tulane coming over as a graduate transfer. Carroll was a featured back for the Green Wave in 2021 before getting injured in 2022. Look for a strong season from Carroll as well.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Gators replace seven defensive starters and really no remaining stand outs from last seasons team. One thing they do have is assistant head coach and secondary coach, Corey Raymond. Like Napier, Raymond is in his second season with the Gators coming over from LSU where he was a defensive backs coach from 2012-2021 helping to produce a lot of talent that has come from LSU during his time there.

Here are my predictions on how the Florida Gators will fare game-by-game in 2023:

Florida Gators 2023 Game-By-Game Predictions

Utah (Salt Lake City, UT) – In one of the most exciting games of the season last year, the Florida Gators took down the Utah Utes in Gainesville last year in week one 29-26. While many are predicting the Gators to struggle in Utah this season, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham stated recently that he is not certain starting quarterback Cam Rising will be able to play week one as he is still recovering from an ACL injury he sustained in January’s Rose Bowl. As we are roughly two weeks away from the game, even if he does play, that should indicate that Rising will not be at full strength, and Rising is the focal point of their offense. Look for the Gators to take advantage of this and rely on their run game escaping Salt Lake City with a 21-14 victory.

McNeese State (Gainesville, FL) – Coming off of a tough road win, the Gators will improve to 2-0 as they take care of business against this FCS opponent. A heavy emphasis should be on the run game early with their stable of backs. Once the Gators get out to a lead, look for them to experiment some with the passing attack to try to get Mertz primed for the upcoming SEC schedule. Confidence will be ever-so important heading into next weeks showdown against rival Tennessee.

Tennessee (Gainesville, FL) – Already scheduled as a 7 PM start time on ESPN, this should help the Gators get hyped up for this affair. Riding their momentum, the Gators will take this one 27-21 against the Vols as Graham Mertz starts to emerge with some confidence in leading the offense. Look for the Gator running backs to continue splitting carries and powering them to a 3-0 record.

Charlotte (Gainesville, FL) – In their third straight home game, the Gators will take on the Charlotte 49ers of the American Athletic Conference. Last season, the 49ers struggled and finished with a 3-9 record, firing their coach Will Healy after a 1-7 start. Under first year head coach, Biff Poggi, the 49ers should be in rebuilding mode which should help the Gators to an easy victory in the Swamp. Look for the Gators to take this one 42-3. The Gators should be able to rotate some backups into the game, giving their starters some much needed extra rest.

Kentucky (Lexington, KY) – Kentucky will take this one 35-10 in a tough road test for the Gators. Led by fifth year transfer quarterback Devin Leary, a group of strong receivers and senior Vanderbilt transfer running back Re’Mahn Davis, this will be a tough one for the Gators to handle with all they’re replacing on defense. Even so, the Gators will be 4-1 on the season at this point and should feel good about their performance so far.

Vanderbilt (Gainesville, FL) – The Gators will be on alert heading into this one against Vanderbilt as last year the Commodores defeated the Gators in Nashville 31-24. Getting up after a loss is always tough, however. That combined with an improving Commodores team under third year head coach Clark Lea, look for the Commodores to give the Gators fits and take this one 24-10 led by their returning starting quarterback, AJ Swann. The struggles on offense for the second week in a row against traditionally mediocre SEC competition will leave questions in Gainesville about whether or not Mertz should be the guy moving forward.

South Carolina (Columbia, SC) – Watch for the Gators make a change at quarterback here giving Jack Miller the start. Miller will rely on the run game while asserting himself at times as a passer propelling the Gators to a surprising 28-17 victory on the road in Columbia against an improving Gamecocks team under their head coach Shane Beamer who is going into his third season coming off of an 8-5 campaign.

Georgia (Jacksonville, FL) – Nothing could be more difficult than taking on the back-to-back defending national champions. And to add to it, it is Florida’s number one rival. In the game known as the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” this one always seems to be intense. While Jack Miller showed promise at South Carolina and has two weeks to prepare for this one, look for the Georgia Bulldogs defense to be all over him in this one as they take the game 35-3. The speed of Georgia on both sides of the ball will be too much for the Gators to handle as they go back to the drawing board before next week’s game against Arkansas.

Arkansas (Gainesville, FL) – The Arkansas Razorbacks will prove to be another tall task for the Gators who continue to have questions at the quarterback position. At this point in the season, it is anyone’s guess who will start for the Gators. It won’t matter much though as the Hogs will take this one 17-10 behind running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders and quarterback KJ Jefferson who are established leaders for the Hogs entering the 2023 season. Quarterback continues to be a weakness for the Gators as they will have amassed only thirteen points in their last two games.

LSU (Baton Rouge, LA) – This one won’t be easy as the Gators have to travel to defending SEC West champion LSU who is coming off of an impressive 10-4 campaign with now second year head coach, Brian Kelly. Although they will be 5-4 heading into this one, it will not feel like it as the Gators will have dropped four of their last five. Expect the Tigers to handle their business at home in this one as they take down the Gators 35-10.

Missouri (Columbia, MO) – Missouri will be a road game for the Gators, but expect the Tigers to also be reeling by this point in the season and having fired their fourth year head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Napier will have the Gators ready to go for this one and they will rely heavily on the run game that worked so well at the start of the season taking down the Tigers 35-17. This will put the Gators at 6-5 and bowl eligible on the season.

Florida State (Gainesville, FL) – In a rivalry game that has lost some of its flair the last several years, Florida State will be playing for a spot in the ACC Championship, as well as the College Football Playoff by this point in the season. Expect the Gators to use this as motivation to give the Seminoles a tough contest. The Gators should chunk up a lot of yards on the ground in this one and look to be rounding into form at the end of Napier’s second year. They will drop this one 24-21, leaving the Gators 6-6 to finish the regular season.

If the Florida Gators had lost to Missouri, this very well could have seen Napier potentially getting let go after his second season. Instead, how the Florida Gators will round out the year in a positive way will keep Napier in Gainesville for at least one more season. This will make season three very pressure packed for him and I would expect Gator fans to not be content with anything less than eight wins in Napier’s third year.