Ranking each SEC teams' playoff chances

12 teams are in the College Football Playoff beginning in 2024. Prior to 2024, the last several years has been a four team playoff. Therefore, unless your team went undefeated or had one loss out of the SEC, chances of you getting in were very slim. And event then, we saw teams like the Georgia Bulldogs last year whose only loss came in the SEC Championship game that were still left out.

The SEC features 16 teams this year with the additions of Oklahoma and Texas, but despite this there is still a better chance of teams out of the SEC making the playoffs.

The conference champion from each of the power four conferences receives an automatic bid, as well as the top ranked group of five team at the end of the year. Beyond that, there are seven at-large bids available amongst the 129 FBS programs. With the SEC being the best conference in the country, chances are they will get three or four teams in the playoff.

Although some teams like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are extreme long shots, they are still qualified as an FBS program to make it, so I wanted to list them and all others ranking them according to the percentage chance I feel they have at making the playoff. Keep in mind these rankings are not necessarily the order of how talented a team is, but takes into account strength of schedule as well.

Chance of making the College Football Playoff by ranking for each SEC team

16. Florida Gators

Florida Gators' schedule: The schedule is just way too difficult here. Again, this is not saying the Gators are the worst team in the SEC. It simply means I feel that with what they have on their roster, the status of their program and their schedule I feel they have the worst chance in the SEC of making the playoffs.

Billy Napier has underperformed: Head coach Billy Napier is entering his third season in Gainesville with the Gators having back-to-back losing seasons in his first two. Additionally, the Gators play what is viewed pre-season as one of the most difficult schedules in NCAA history.

15. Mississippi State

This one may surprise you that names like Vanderbilt and Arkansas are not ranked as having a worse chance than the Bulldogs. And the Commodores and Razorbacks indeed have more difficult schedules than the Bulldogs as well. However, the main factor as play here is a totally revamped roster for the Bulldogs compared to drastic changed for the Commodores and Razorbacks that should help their chances some.

The Bulldogs are in a rebuild: The Bulldogs will be set up well in the long-term with head coach Jeff Lebby. But this is year one of a significant rebuild, so it will be very difficult for them to have a winning record in 2024, let alone make the playoffs.

14. Oklahoma Sooners

Missing offensive pieces: I hate that I’m putting the Sooners here, because head coach Brent Venables has a great defense which brings back leaders Billy Bowman Jr. and Danny Stutsman. However, the entire offensive line is being replace, the quarterback is new and they are new to the SEC.

Look for the Sooners to have a decent season, but them actually making the playoffs I’m not very confident in.

13. Vanderbilt Commodores

Clark Lea calling plays: Head coach Clark Lea made drastic changes in the 2023 offseason. The three biggest would be moving himself back into the seat of calling plays for the defense, which he last did in 2022. This was Lea’s best season for the Commodore’s in which they went 5-7.

Jerry Kill hired: Lea also hired former New Mexico State and Minnesota coach Jerry Kill to serve as his special assistant. These two together should be able to make some drastic improvement for the Commodores in 2024, which increases their chances of making the playoffs more-so than the teams already mentioned.

Diego Pavia and Nate Johnson: Lea brought in quarterbacks Diego Pavia and Nate Johnson in the transfer portal. Pavia knows offensive coordinator Tim Beck’s system from his time as the starter at New Mexico State, and Johnson has experience leading the Utes last season.

Each of the dynamic skill sets that Pavia and Johnson possess could have the Commodores with a unique two quarterback system much like the Gators did with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow back in 2006.

12. South Carolina Gamecocks

The reason they are not higher is because of last season. Although they will be improved with new quarterback LaNorris Sellars as well as staff changes, at the end of the day this is still Sellars’ first season as the starting quarterback. The exit of Juice Wells hurts the Gamecocks as well when it comes to their chances to make the playoffs.

11. Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino hire: We have seen what new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino can do in Fayetteville. The last time he was in town was as the head coach, and he was knocking on the door of being one of the top teams in the SEC. In fact, his last two seasons with the Razorbacks were 21-5.

The Razorbacks will be improved from last year, hence the reason they are not ranked moor poorly on the list here. But to move them all the way up even inside the top 10 would be too much. They will still struggle in 2024 and the talent they have will be better, but far from good enough to see a playoff appearance.

10. Missouri Tigers

Until head coach Eli Drinkwitz proves it more than one year in a row, this is where Missouri will sit when it comes to their chances of making the college football playoff. Many including myself were wrong last year in thinking they would be a laughing stock of the SEC after going 17-19 in Drinkwitz’s first three seasons only to go 9-3 in 2024. If we are wrong again, they could be in the playoffs after all.

The Tigers do have a favorable schedule in 2024 and bring back starting quarterback Brady Cook and leading wide receiver Luther Burden.

9. Texas A&M Aggies

Mike Elko is making waves in a good way since arriving to College Station in the transfer portal and comes in with an impressive 16-9 record in two seasons as the head coach in Durham for the Duke Blue Devils. With that being said, it is still year one for Elko. And coming off of a 7-6 season which including the firing of Jimbo Fisher, this is why I do not have the Aggies ranked higher for playoff chances in 2024.

8. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky's returning production: Having Kentucky as high as I do may surprise some people. However, the Wildcats return the most production in the SEC and return nine out of 11 starters on defense. They also bring in transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff who has been on two national championship teams as a backup quarterback for the Georgia Bulldogs.

Brock Vandagriff: Vandagriff has had the privilege of learning behind Stetson Bennett and Carson Beck. The fact that he has not started a game in college yet says nothing about him, but everything about the depth of the Bulldogs. Vandagriff will be aided in his first year in Lexington with the Wildcats returning their top two wide receivers in Barion Brown and Dane Key.

With the amount of experience the Wildcats have returning, they could very well be the Missouri Tigers of 2024 and known as the surprise team of the SEC.

7. Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns had a great season in 2023 which led to a playoff appearance. Beyond that however, there has not been a lot of recent success in Austin. Prior to 2023, the Longhorns have had one 10-win season since 2010.

Steve Sarkisian's lack of success: Additionally, while head coach Steve Sarkisian appears to have the program on the ascent, the fact still remains that he has only had one double digit win season in his 10 seasons as a head coach between his time at the University of Washington, USC and Texas.

Texas lost too much: The Longhorns do have a lot of talent but also lost starting running back Cedric Baxter for the season due to injury in fall camp. This combined with the loss of wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington to the NFL Draft is another reason I am not super high on the Longhorns repeating with a playoff entry in 2024.

Sarkisian has brought in talent, so they will be better than before he arrived, but that is a different conversation. In regards to making the playoff, I am out on them for 2024.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide

Sorry Tide fans, but the three losses I have the Tide down for in 2024 will make it difficult for them to overcome and a playoff entry. This is no knock on new head coach Kalen DeBoer necessarily, but just the leveling of the playing field in the SEC with teams like Georgia who is already sustained and the rise of the Tennessee Volunteers and Ole Miss Rebels.

5. Auburn Tigers

The Tigers need some balls to bounce the right way in 2024, but the fact that their first five games are at home should help them get off to a very strong start in 2024. Their first road test is in Athens, Georgia. If the Tigers can go into Athens undefeated and shock the Bulldogs, this sets up for a very interesting second half.

Auburn’s boosted wide receiver room: The Tigers return starting quarterback Peyton Thorne. Last season. Thorne’s leading pass catcher was a tight end in Rivaldo Fairweather. When your leading receiver is a tight end, that is a problem. That problem however will not exist in 2024 as the Tigers are loaded with young talent at the wide receiver position with five star recruit Cam Coleman leading the charge.

Auburn improved across the board: The Tigers have also improved in the secondary, defensive line and offensive line most notably. Again, some things need to fall the right way, but the front half of the schedule helps with that and could help the Tigers be the surprise SEC team in 2024.

4. Ole Miss Rebels

Defensive acquisitions: The Rebels are loaded with talent on both side of the ball. Top defensive acquisitions in defensive tackle Walter Nolen and linebacker Chris “Poo” Paul out of the transfer portal should improve a defense in their second year under Pete Golding. Golding improved the defense all the way up to 59th overall in his first season with the Rebels in 2023.

Jaxon Dart’s experience: On the offensive side of the ball, the Rebels return starting quarterback Jaxson Dart for his third season under head coach Lane Kiffin. The tandem looks to do something unprecedented as far as offensive numbers go and is not unattainable given the experience the two have together.

The Rebels also return leading wide receiver Tre Harris and tight end Caden Prieskorn. Both Harris and Prieskorn had breakout seasons for the Rebels in 2023.

Pete Golding's shortcomings: The reason the Rebels are not higher is the question of defensive coordinator Golding. At Alabama, Golding regressed in several statistical categories with the Tide. If the same happens in Oxford and the Rebels do not see even more improvement on the defensive side of the ball, this could keep them from the playoffs despite the firepower on the offensive side of the ball.

3. LSU Tigers

Head coach Brian Kelly enters his third season as head coach of the Tigers after coming from Notre Dame where he spent the last 12 seasons. During his time in South Bend, Kelly led the Tigers to the BCS Championship game in 2012 and the College Football Playoff in 2020.

Brian Kelly's winning percentage: Kelly’s winning percentage with the Irish was 73% and so far at LSU it is 74%. Kelly recently made mention of his year three success as each stop and he is not wrong. During year three at Cincinnati and Notre Dame, Kelly has gone 23-4. It seems like once he gets his pieces in place, his teams take off. And year three could be a marker for that.

LSU has experience: Although Kelly lost Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Tigers return four of their five starting offensive lineman including two projected 2025 first round NFL Draft picks in Will Campbell and Emory Jones Jr. This combined with an experienced fifth year senior quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier ready to take the controls sees a very veteran group in Baton Rouge.

LSU will grind clock: Do not be surprised if with the restructuring of the defense under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, the focus is on the offense manageing games, grinds clock and grinds out victories as a formula to success.

2. Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols are a team on the rise in the SEC, but I do not think many would have them on the rise to the point of ranking them as second highest chance of making the playoffs in 2024. However, look for the Vols to improve drastically as the year progresses with first year starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

Tennessee will improve drastically: Although they may get off to a shaky start, the season is long and the Vols have some veteran pass catchers, experience in the linebacking core, a star at defensive line in James Pearce Jr. and a lot of other pieces that could make it a promising season.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Whatever question marks the Bulldogs have entering the season are answered week in and week out by head coach Kirby Smart who continues to do nothing but win SEC and National Championships in Athens.

This year, the Bulldogs return starting quarterback Carson Beck whose veteran presence should help to stabilize a Bulldogs offense with an unclear number one receiver and new running back room.

Defense reigns supreme: A constant that always reaming in Athens is the Bulldogs playing tenacious defense under Smart. The Bulldogs have ranked first in overall defense in the SEC each year since 2021. And do not look for that to change in 2024 as the defense helps lead them to the playoffs.