ATS Pick ‘Em: Southbound and Down Staff (Week 8)
I think I am being taught a lesson in humility. After a dominant week 1, I got cocky about our picks in week 2. Instead of continuing that dominance, most of the staff was embarrassed with their picks in week 2.
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I held off on outrageous comments for the next several weeks as the staff put together impressive picks week after week. Then I got cocky again last week. I, predictably, then led a completely underwhelming performance in picks in week 7.
The good news is history tends to repeat itself and week 8 should be one to watch for in picks. I’m not making any bold predictions here this time. But even with 2 abysmal weeks, most of the staff is comfortably above .500 picking games heads up and against the spread (ATS). So let’s not pretend like these picks aren’t more likely than not to be expert level.
Week 7 Results
Neal 3-5 ATS 2-6
Andrew: 3-5 ATS 2-6
Ben R: 3-5 ATS 2-6
Ryan: 4-4 ATS 3-5
John 3-5 ATS 3-5
Overall
Live Feed
Betsided
John: 55-14 ATS 39-30
Neal: 56-13 ATS 36-32-1
Ben R: 54-15 ATS 39-30
Andrew: 36-16 ATS 25-25
Ben M: 19-2 ATS 16-7
Ryan: 32-13 ATS 21-24
Lee 30-7 ATS 23-16
Week 8 Games
Spreads taken from teamrankings.com. Shout out again to Neal Wilkerson for providing the extra tidbits including kickoff specials and bowl, division, conference, playoff and Heisman implications.
Arkansas (-5.5) V Auburn
Oct 10, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema talks to wide receiver Drew Morgan (80) during the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew: It’s the battle for last place in the SEC West! I like Arkansas to win a close, low-scoring game at home. Final: 20-17 Hogs.
Neal: *Early Kickoff *Bowl Eligibility Implications
Fayetteville, AR Forecast: Heavy cloud coverage. Rain. Wind 8 mph. Slightly cool temperature with high humidity
Two teams I wrote off earlier in the year have found a little life. Auburn found a way past Kentucky last Thursday night, but I don’t think they’re quite ready to be labeled a huge threat yet. I like the Razorbacks on the ground at home, and in the rain.
Auburn 23 Arkansas 30
Ben R: Arkansas wins and covers.
John: Arkansas is coming off their bye week and should be fully prepared for the Tigers, both offensively and defensively. They aren’t good enough to blow the more talented Auburn unit out, but they are good enough to win without covering the spread.
Alabama (-15.5) V Tennessee
Andrew: The Vols are coming in hot off a win against Georgia, while Alabama continues to pummel its opponents. You just don’t go into Tuscaloosa and beat the Tide (unless you’re Ole Miss). Alabamacontinues its dominance with a convincing win over UT, 35-17.
Neal: *CBS Choice **Rivalry Game
Tuscaloosa, AL Forecast: Cloud coverage. Potential rain. Wind 5 mph. Slightly cool temperature. High humidity
Everyone remember that time Terrance Cody blocked a field goal against Tennessee to preserve the win for Crimson Tide? That was 2009, and a lot of water has (rolled) under the bridge since then. Lane Kiffin now stands side-to-side with Nick Saban, and the Crimson Tide will once again prevail on the ThirdSaturday in October.
Tennessee 17 Alabama 38
Ben R: Upset special, don’t ask why. My gut is telling me something or maybe I’m just hungry. UT wins and covers
John: The Volunteers will score some points but not in bunches. 15.5 points seems like a big spread for a rivalry game. I think Alabama wins by two scores and fails to cover the 15.5 point spread.
Missouri (-2.5) V Vanderbilt
Oct 17, 2015; Columbia, SC, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Johnny McCrary (2) scrambles during the game between Vanderbilt and South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium. Final score South Carolina 19 – Vanderbilt 10. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew: Two programs seemingly headed in the same direction: down. Just when you thought Vandy showed improvement, they go and lose to a Head Ball Coach-less South Carolina. The offenses will struggle in this game; I’m taking Mizzou 13-6.
Neal: Bowl Eligibility Implications
Nashville, TN Forecast: Cloudy skies. Chance of rain. Wind 10 mph. Cool temperature
The Commodores let me down last week against South Carolina, and Missouri just seems to find a way to win. I won’t make the same mistake with this game. Give me the Tigers, and we’ll call it a day in Nashville
Missouri 22 Vanderbilt 13
Ben R: Mizzou wins and covers.
John: This is going to be another battle of who has the better kicker. Many of Mizzou and Vandy’s games have already fit this theme, so I don’t see this one being any different. Mizzou moves the ball between the 20’s slightly better, so I’ll take them to win and barely cover the spread.
Mississippi (-6) V Texas A&M
Andrew: Both the Aggies and the Rebels were pounded last week. They’ll both look to avoid back-to-back losses this week. After witnessing QB Kyle Allen throw three pick-sixes last week, I like Ole Miss’s offense to be a bit more potent than the A&M’s. Mississippi wins 38-27.
Neal: *ESPN Night Game **Division Ramifications
College Station, TX Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 11 mph. Warm temperature
Ole Miss looks like an absolute train wreck right now. The Rebels can’t run the ball to save their life, and no one on defense can get off the field on 3rd down. The Aggies were abused at home last weekend against Alabama. I’m going to give the Rebels one more chance.
Texas A&M 28 Ole Miss 35
Ben R: A&M to win and cover.
John: There is one, and only one, reason I’m picking the Rebels here. And it probably isn’t what you think. Teams don’t play well after they play Bama. Give me the Rebels and a few unreported injuries to play a factor in the Aggies’ loss.
LSU (-16.5) V Western Kentucky
Oct 17, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) is tackled by Florida Gators defensive back Garrett Stephens (30) and defensive lineman Bryan Cox (94) during the second half of a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Florida 35-28.Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew: There’s not much to say here. Leonard Fournette will run wild for about a thousand yards and a handful of TDs. Tigers win BIG, 49-14.
Neal: *LSU Night Game **Heisman Contender
Baton Rouge, LA Forecast: Heavy clouds. No precipitation. Wind 11 mph. Warm temperature. 69% humidity
LSU may be the best team in the SEC this year. A far cry from some pre-season predictions that saw the Tigers losing 4-5 games. LSU will get their test when they travel to Tuscaloosa soon. Until then, look for Leonard Fournette to enjoy the second half off Saturday night.
Western Kentucky 9 LSU 41
Ben R: LSU win, WKU covers.
John: Don’t get it twisted: Western Kentucky is not winning this game. They will, however, test the Tigers more than most are expecting. Western Kentucky can score and LSU seems more and more lackadaisical in putting their weak out of conference opponents away in recent weeks. LSU wins, WKU covers late.
Next: SEC Viewer's Guide, Week 8
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Mississippi State (-11) V Kentucky
Andrew: An 11-point spread in favor of the Bulldogs seems a bit much. Both teams are capable of competing with the best of the conference, they just haven’t been able to finish. I’m taking Mississippi State because of the ‘Cowbell Effect’: 24-14.
Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Rivalry Game
Starkville, MS Forecast: Partly cloudy. No precipitation. Wind 7 mph. Slightly warm temperature.
Mississippi State is quietly making a march to 8 regular season wins. And this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs? The game against Kentucky is critical. I would pick the Wildcats if this was in Lexington, but the Bulldogs remain a consistent stable bunch that seem to always win the games they’re supposed to compete in.
Kentucky 24 Mississippi State 28
Ben R: UK wins and covers
John: Kentucky let me down last week. I thought they would beat Auburn at home and look like a legitimate threat. No way they beat the Bulldogs in Starkville. There’s also no way the Bulldogs cover an 11 point spread against Patrick Towles.