SEC Football ATS: Southbound and Down Pick Em (Week 10)

By John Richardson | Nov 5, 2015

Before the 2015 SEC football season began, the staff here at Southbound and Down agreed to participate in a weekly Pick ‘Em of SEC games. We’ve had incredible and embarrassing stretches, filled with more mediocre stretches in between. Our heads up pick ‘em game is strong. Our picks against the spread (ATS) have been much more hit or miss.

Overall, though, you definitely would be sitting in the black had you actually bet following our picks. All I’m saying is we’re pretty dang good at this, especially since this is the first time doing something like this for most of us. Neal is tied with myself for the lead in picking the games. I’ve got a one game lead on Ben against the spread after he nailed a perfect week last week.

Many of us have heard from friends, families and strangers about how much better they could be doing if they were making the picks. While we can’t exactly make that a reality, it did spark an idea. Last week Southbound and Down readers were a part of the Southbound and Down Pick ‘Em. If you think you’re up to the task, find more info and your opportunity to be a part of it here.

Andrew had his own question for this week, though. And I quote, “Am I the only one who actually likes Verne and Gary calling games?” I’d add his question to the poll, but yeah. Andrew, you’re the only one. At least I think so. I mute the TV and find the radio broadcast for the CBS games.

Week 9 Update

Neal: 5-1 ATS 2-4

More from SEC Football

Andrew: 6-0 ATS 4-2

Ben R: 6-0 ATS 6-0

Ryan: 6-0 ATS 2-4

John: 6-0 ATS 5-1

Readers: ATS 5-1

Overall Standings

John: 66-15 ATS 47-34

Neal: 66-15 ATS 41-39-1

Ben R: 62-19 ATS 46-35

Andrew: 40-18 ATS 28-28

Ben M: 19-2 ATS 16-7

Ryan: 38-13 ATS 23-28

Lee 30-7 ATS 23-16

The Games:

Spreads courtesy of teamrankings.com

Mississippi State (-7.5) V Missouri

Neal: *Thursday Night Special **Bowl Ramifications

Columbia, MO Forecast: Heavy cloud coverage. Rain. Wind 14 mph. Slightly cool temperature with high humidity

Missouri has a decent defense, but no offense. I’ll give Missouri a few points considering the game is at home, and those Thursday night games tend to favor the home team. However, Missouri has no chance against Mississippi State. Look for the Bulldogs to do just enough to pull out a two score win on the road.

Mississippi State 23 Missouri 13

Andrew: Missouri is garbage, but its defense will keep it close. Mississippi State wins a close one in Columbia, 21-17.

Ben R: Mississippi State looks like they are picking up where they left off….in the middle of the season last year. State covers and wins.

John: Mississippi State’s offense has been clicking as of late. I said Mississippi State should be on mild upset alert earlier this week. I stand by that statement, but I did say mild. I think this game is much closer than it should be until late in the game. Mississippi State scores a late touchdown to make it an 8 or 9 point win.

Florida (-21) V Vanderbilt

Neal: *Early Kickoff

Gainesville, FL Forecast: Some cloud coverage. No projected rain. Wind 6 mph. Warm temperature. Noticeable humidity

The soon to be Eastern Division champion Gators pretty much have everything wrapped up. Vanderbilt’s offense has been non-existent for the most part this year. Look for Florida to pull away early, and keep it that way. Vanderbilt will need more than an 11:00 kickoff and a bored Florida team to win this one.

Vanderbilt 9 Florida 37

Andrew: Vanderbilt boasts arguably one of the tougher defenses in the SEC, and it could potentially give Florida’s offense fits. I like the Gators, but not by three touchdowns. Florida wins 27-13.

Ben R: I just don’t think I can see Treon Harris leading UF to cover this spread. The Florida defense will be stout against Vandy, but coming off the big win last week, I see a small let down. UF wins, Vandy covers.

John: First off, UF wins. There is no doubt about that result whatsoever. But a 21 point spread, a backup quarterback and the week after an emotional rivalry game? Add in the 11:00 kickoff and I’m picking Vandy to cover.

Georgia (-14) V Kentucky

Neal: *Early Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications

Oct 31, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Sony Michel (1) runs with the ball as Florida Gators defensive back Quincy Wilson (6) defends during the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Athens, GA Forecast: Heavy cloud coverage. Rain. Wind 6 mph. Cool temperature with high humidity

How much energy can the Bulldogs muster now that preseason goals have flown out the window? How hard will the Georgia players fight for Mark Richt with his job on the line in Athens? Does Kentucky have enough in the tank to pull off an upset? The last two weekends for Kentucky are two the program would probably like to forget.

Kentucky 17 Georgia 30

Andrew: This is a game Georgia has to win. The Dawgs have lost three of their last four games and a loss to Kentucky could crush UGA’s hopes of reaching a warm weather bowl. Georgia edges Kentucky 28-13.

Ben R: I don’t know I feel like a game with a 14 point spread is a toss up, but I really do feel like it is at this point. If UGA players love their coach, they win by 40. If they just like him alright, I don’t even know if they win. I am very reluctantly taking UGA to win and cover.

John: Georgia shows up and balls out. Last week’s performance was embarrassing but not surprising. For whatever reason, the rivalry seems to matter more to Florida recently. Georgia’s offense finds a way to put up a high point total and cover the spread against Kentucky.

Mississippi (-11) V Arkansas

Neal: *Bowl Ramifications **CBS Choice ***Division Ramifications

Oxford, MS Forecast: Heavy clouds. Showers. Wind 10 mph. Cool-cold temperature with moderate humidity

Ole Miss still controls their destiny in conference play. Arkansas is still searching for wins to reach bowl eligibility. Ole Miss is a different team at home. Had this game been in Fayetteville I would have almost surely flipped the scores.

Arkansas 20 Ole Miss 41

Andrew: I’m still not sure what to think of this Ole Miss team. It’s amazing that the same Rebels who are struggling against Auburn and Memphis were able to knock off Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Ole Miss continues its push for the SEC West title with a win over Arkansas: 31-17.

Ben R: The spreads this week are ridiculous. Tunsil has helped on the Ole Miss offensive line, and surely that has helped stabilize their offense. That defense though….that defense still just isn’t that good. Give me Arkansas to cover, and Ole Miss to win.

John: I don’t like this game. Why did the spread have to be double digits? I think Ole Miss will be highly motivated after last year’s debacle in Arkansas. Then again, they should have easily handled Auburn last week with all the “extra motivation”. This Rebel team is tough to predict and read. They’re undefeated at home, though, and I’ll take them to cover the spread.

Tennessee (-16) V South Carolina

Neal: *Bowl Ramifications

Knoxville, TN Forecast: Heavy clouds. Rain. Wind 6 mph. Cool temperature with strong humidity.

Tennessee has set themselves up with a great opportunity to close the season out strong after a rough start. South Carolina would just like to find a few positives in what’s been a lackluster season to this point. The Vols are tough to go against this weekend.

South Carolina 17 Tennessee 38

Andrew: South Carolina has played more inspired since the Head Ball Coach resigned a few weeks ago. Will the Gamecocks play with enough energy to top Tennessee in Neyland Stadium? Not likely. Tennesseewins 35-24.

Ben R: See Tennessee UK game last week. Tennessee wins and covers. Next.

John: South Carolina has laid their heart on the lines the last few weeks only to see their hopes and dreams smashed. I think they give it one more go and again fail, repeating last week’s result.

Texas A&M (-7) Auburn

Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications

College Station, TX Forecast: Cloudy. Rain. Wind 14 mph. Mild temperature with slight humidity.

This is a hard one to predict. Texas A&M has some issues, but Auburn has it’s issues as well. Auburn’s offense looks wacky, and unorganized, but I still see them giving A&M fits on the road. I like the Aggies at home, but it’ll be close.

Auburn 28 Texas A&M 35

Andrew: Despite both teams trending downward, this could be the most exciting game of the day. Auburn’s struggles continue in College Station; Texas A&M gets back on track with a 28-20 win.

Ben R: Now we start with the upset picks. Deep breath. I’m taking Auburn to win and cover. True freshman qb for Sumlin and he hasn’t looked overly impressive in his first few games. Auburn took longer than expected to get rolling, but they are playing much better on both sides of the ball. Take Auburn to cover, and if you got the guts, take them straight up for a nice pay day.

John: Stop it. Kyler Murray will eat this defense for dinner. Unfortunately his bowel movements will consist of field goals and the Aggies will barely cover the spread.

Alabama (-6) V LSU

Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Division Ramifications ***National Ramifications

Tuscaloosa, AL Forecast: Heavy clouds. Rain. Wind 10 mph. Cold-cool temperature and noticeable humidity.

The biggest in-conference game the SEC has seen thus far this year? Possibly. Leonard Fournette squares off against Alabama’s highly regarded front 7. Can’t wait! I think Alabama contains Fournette..though he’ll still get his 100 yards. I think this comes down to quarterback play. I like Alabama’s quarterback play a little..I repeat..a little..better than LSU’s. With the homecrowd in the Tide’s favor, and it just makes sense.

LSU 21 Alabama 24

Andrew: It’s the battle for first place in the SEC West (go figure). Can Bama’s defense contain the machine that is Leonard Fournette, or will it struggle as it did against Ole Miss? LSU, because of Fournette alone, stuns Alabama at home; 23-21.

Ben R: All you need to know for this game: Alabama has absolutely nobody to play quarterback. That will be the difference as LSU covers and wins.

John: What is more likely: containing Leonard Fournette or Alabama losing at home twice in the same year? I think this game goes down to the wire and I love the 6 point spread. I think regardless of the outcome, the difference is no more than 3. Alabama finds a way.

Next: SEC Football Fans Pick the Games Against the Spread

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