Vanderbilt Football: 2016 Challenger or Doormat?

"Considering that their head coach is Derek Mason, and he has a career winning percentage of .292, I think it is safe to say that reaching a .500 record would exceed even the highest of expectations for Vanderbilt."

Over the spring, we have been writing a series of “Contender or Pretender” articles and in good faith I could not bring that to be the title of this article about Vanderbilt. Considering that their head coach is Derek Mason, and he has a career winning percentage of .292, I think it is safe to say that reaching a .500 record this year would exceed even the highest of expectations for Vanderbilt.

Even if they were to finish at 5-7, that would mean they would have beat a team or two they were underdogs to in Vegas. Can Vanderbilt provide a challenge to those battling for SEC East power? Or, will Vanderbilt be an automatic-w on the schedule?

Case for Challenger

For years Vanderbilt football was more of a punchline for the SEC than an actual team in the SEC. They had been unable to keep pace the same way they were able to do in baseball and basketball. Then James Franklin bucked the trend and led the Commodores to a 24-15 record in his 3 years spent at Vandy. That included back to back years of 9-4 records, bowl wins, and top 25 finishes. My point is that winning can be achieved while at Vanderbilt and James Franklin proved it. So, what makes the case for Derek Mason to achieve success this year and try to replicate James Franklin’s performance?

Derek Mason’s Commodores will always have a terrific defense. Despite having a horrific offense that couldn’t hold on to the ball to give them a breather, the Vanderbilt defense ranked 28th in the nation in total defense. They held an Ole Miss football team to their 2nd lowest point total of the season in Oxford, and almost beat the Florida Gators in the swamp before they ultimately lost 9-7. The defense is returning 8 of its 11 starters and will be fully compromised of juniors and seniors, with only 1 sophomore. They will be able to single handedly win a game for Vanderbilt this year that they aren’t supposed to win.

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The question is the offense. Talking about the offense in general should belong squarely in the “case for doormat” portion to follow, but I think it is fair to mention that they can’t get worse. If they could only be a below average offense without being a pitiful resemblance of an offense, then Vanderbilt’s defense could carry them to the promised land.

The offense is returning 7 starters, and consistency should help improve this unit’s performance. Kyle Shurmur looks to take on the full-time starter role in 2016, and after getting his freshman year behind him, he should definitely improve. They return their running back in Ralph Webb and both of Shurmur’s starting receivers will be returning as well. Talent is never going to be strong suit of players at Vanderbilt, but familiarity and timing can be key in orchestrating an improved offense in 2016. Marginal improvement on the offensive side of the ball could make this a 6-6 team by the end of 2016.

Case for Doormat

Earlier I said that if Vanderbilt could be a below average offense that’d be an accomplishment? Well, to just get to below average they have a long ways to go. In 2015, Vanderbilt was ranked 116th in the country in total offense. For those of you keeping count, that means only 11 teams in all of the FBS had a worse ranking in total offense.

Also mentioned above, 7 of the 11 starters are returning on the offensive side of the ball. Ralph Webb showed flashes of what he can do if the lanes can be blocked properly by the offensive line, as seen here:

Unfortunately, that offensive line is only returning 3 starters, and they aren’t even sure who is playing center for them this year. The offensive line has to gel in order for any of the phases in the offense to improve. To give their defense a breather, they will have to be better at run blocking as the team ranked only 87th in rushing yards last year.

A solid offensive line may not be able to help the passing game though. Vanderbilt was consistently rotating who was playing the quarterback spot, and when change is the only thing consistent about your quarterback, you end up with the 111th ranked passing offense. The fact that the offense couldn’t even threaten their opponent in the passing game, defense are ready to simply stack an 8-man box.

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With that type of paltry offensive performance, how do 8 of the 11 returning starters on defense stay motivated? Now juniors and seniors, these players committed to a Vanderbilt program coming off of a 9-4 season. Being parts of 3-9 and 4-8 seasons is not what they signed up for in the beginning. The seniors didn’t even sign up to be under Derek Mason, and they played for James Franklin if they played their freshman year at Vanderbilt. If Vanderbilt’s offense starts on a struggle at the beginning of the year, I believe the defense will ultimately give up the ghost as Derek Mason may not even make it to the end of the season.

In 2016, Vanderbilt will ruin someone’s season

In 2015 Vanderbilt posed a very real threat to ruin Ole Miss’ and Florida’s seasons, but ultimately came up short. I believe that Kyle Shurmur will grow after a year of learning to play quarterback as a freshman. I think the experience pays off and Vanderbilt will be able to close on a top-25 upset. That being said, I still think that the defense will be the reason they win the game, and the offensive output will only be a flash in the pan. Vanderbilt may not be a “doormat” but a 5-7 season may not be good enough to have Derek Mason keep his job.

Next: Ole Miss to Challenge Alabama Again in SEC West?

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