SEC Football: Kentucky or Missouri to Make 2016 Bowl?
SEC football fans demand their teams make bowl games, or their head coaches will soon be fired. Missouri and Kentucky both finished last season at 5-7 — which is more likely to take the next step?
Missouri fell apart last year after making two straight SEC Football Championship games. Gary Pinkel resigned, the team almost quit, Maty Mauk couldn’t get clean and their offense never found a rhythm. All the while their defense remained consistent, which is probably why Missouri promoted former defensive coordinator Barry Odom to head coach. The Tigers did almost manage to make a bowl, even declining an invite at 5-7. Can they reach 6 wins and legitimately earn a bowl berth in 2016? They’ll have to start by winning more than one SEC football game.
Kentucky relived their 2014 nightmare in 2015. After beginning the 2014 season 5-1 and 2-1 in SEC football, the Wildcats finished 5-7. Surely that wouldn’t happen again after the Wildcats started 2015 4-1, including another 2-1 mark in SEC football. Except it did, as Kentucky only beat the Charlotte 49ers down the stretch. After two seasons at 5-7, can the Wildcats break through to .500 and a bowl berth?
Both teams play in the SEC East, have a returning quarterback with experience and have defensive minded coaches. Mark Stoops has done a decent job recruiting, a little better than Odom. Missouri’s defense gets the edge here, but I’ll take the running game of Kentucky with Boom Williams. So what can we look at to give us an idea of which SEC football team will crack a bowl berth?
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The schedule.
Kentucky plays Southern Miss, New Mexico State, Austin Peay and Louisville out of conference in 2016. Every one of those games outside of Louisville should be a win, though Southern Miss will be a tough out. Kentucky draws Alabama and Mississippi State form the SEC West, which means the Wildcats will need to upset Mississippi State. It’s possible, but it won’t be easy. That means Kentucky should have 4 wins after splitting Louisville and Mississippi State, leaving 2 wins to be found amongst South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Missouri. Decent odds.
Missouri plays West Virginia, Eastern Michigan, Delaware State and Middle Tennessee out of conference in 2016. Missouri, like Kentucky, should win 3 of those 4 — with West Virginia coming as a loss. The Tigers get Arkansas and LSU out of the SEC West — and both figure to be a more difficult win than Mississippi State in 2016. That means Missouri would have to go undefeated against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky if they can’t spring a pretty major upset. Unlikely odds.
must read: Florida Football: Over/Under 7.5 Wins in 2016?
That’s what is crazy about SEC football and college football in general. The schedule determines so much of how successful a season is. Dan Mullen knows that, as he makes sure there is almost always 4 non-conference games his Bulldogs can win. Love it or hate it, he has a successful strategy. Kentucky benefits from playing a schedule with a few more toss-up games. I think Missouri and Kentucky are two basically even teams, Kentucky is much more likely to make a bowl game in 2016 due to their schedule. Look for the Wildcats to be bowling, but not on New Year’s.