Florida Football: Over/Under 7.5 Wins in 2016

Las Vegas sportsbooks have set the over/under for Florida football wins in 2016 at 7.5 – is there money to be made?

Before we begin, let’s briefly address why the number 8 will be so important. If you’ve been following along with this series, you’ve already learned about the over/under system and how it works. If not, here’s a simple break down. Sports books based in Las Vegas have set the over/under number for Florida football wins at 7.5 for 2016. This means if you decided to place a bet on the Gator’s season victory total, you would have to pick either under (7 or less), over (8 or more). The .5 eliminates the possibility of what is known as a push. A push means neither side wins. So the number of primary concern, then, is 8.

I do want to stress that this is just for fun and is not meant to be a betting guide. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s see if Florida football attaining 8 wins or more is realistic.

More from SEC Football

Florida football thrived in head coach Jim McElwain’s first season. After being mired in mediocrity the final two years of Will Muschamp’s tenure, the Gators broke through in a big way. Florida football rode the momentum of a 6-0 start (mostly with Will Grier at the helm) to an SEC East Championship. Although they never found another quarterback, the Gators defeated the opponents they were supposed to down the stretch. McElwain and Florida football fans will take it, as it was good enough for a 10 win season.

Florida football is now the LSU of the SEC East. All they need is a quarterback. Defense was never the problem for Florida football, and they continued to dominate under McElwain and defensive coordinator Geoff Collins. With Will Grier leading the charge, Florida football was in great shape. The ability, or inability, to find a quarterback will determine whether Florida football reaches 8 or more wins.

Florida Football 2016 Schedule

UMass – Win

Kentucky – Win. In what amounts to the first test for Florida football in 2016, their lack of a proven quarterback won’t hurt them just yet.

North Texas – Win

@ Tennessee – Loss. The Gators barely survived this contest last year in the Swamp. The Volunteers return their quarterback, Florida football does not. That will make the difference and give the Volunteers a leg up in the SEC East race.

@Vanderbilt – Win. This game will come down to the 4^th quarter, but the depth Florida football boasts will seal the deal for them.

LSU – Toss-up. The Tigers are more talented right now, but I believe more in the Florida quarterbacks. Jim McElwain has a track record of building quarterbacks, despite the lack of success with Treon Harris.

Missouri – Win. This will be a low scoring affair, but one that favors Florida football. I don’t think Mizzou finds their answers offensively this year, and the Gators pull away after halftime.

Georgia – Win. Florida football will stay alive in the SEC East race with a tight win. I like Kirby Smart at Georgia and he understands the relevance of this game as a Georgia grad. But the Gators will show up for this one and contain the Georgia running game in a big way.

@Arkansas – Loss. Arkansas gets better as the season continues and they are tough to beat at home. If the Gators lose to Georgia, I think they’ll win this one. Otherwise I think this is a letdown game for Florida football. They could both be listed as toss-ups.

South Carolina – Win. While I think Muschamp will have his Gamecocks playing at an elite level in what amounts to a personal revenge game, I don’t think they have the talent to compete with the Gators for four quarters this year.

Presbyterian – Win

Florida State – Loss. Florida will come go into Tallahassee with a solid record and possibly be ranked. That couldn’t be worse news for the Gators, as they need the more talented Seminoles to sleep on them a bit. McElwain is gaining on his in-state rivals, though.

Verdict

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8 wins is not hard to come by in the SEC East. The Gators have 3 easy out of conference games to go along with Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. That’s 7 games they should win, and Vegas obviously agrees. I think they win the ones they should and spring at least one upset, giving them at least 8 wins. Take the over.

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