LSU Football: Over/Under 10.5 Wins in 2016

Dec 29, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Brandon Harris (6) prepares to catch a snap against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second half at NRG Stadium. LSU won 56 to 27. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 29, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Brandon Harris (6) prepares to catch a snap against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second half at NRG Stadium. LSU won 56 to 27. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

5dimes has set the over/under for LSU football wins in 2016 at 10.5 – is there money to be made?

Before we begin, let’s briefly address why the number 11 will be so important. If you’ve been following along with this series, you’ve already about the over/under system and how it works. If not, here’s a simple break down. 5dimes set the over/under number for LSU football wins at 10.5 for 2016. This means if you decided to place a bet on the Dog’s season victory total, you would have to pick either under (10 or less) or over (11 or more). I do want to stress that this is just for fun and is not meant to be a betting guide.   Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s see if LSU football attaining 11 wins is realistic.

Related: Arkansas Football: Over/Under 7 Wins

Related: Georgia Football: Over/Under 9.5 Wins

LSU football has been remarkably consistent during the entire tenure of Les Miles.  Since Miles came down from Oklahoma State in 2005, LSU football fans have enjoyed seeing their Tigers reach 10 wins 7 times. 5 out of those 7 times, the Tigers have also gone on to reach at least 11 wins. It truly is amazing that Les Miles was considered as good as fired in November of last year. But the problem is the Tigers have failed to reach anything more than 10 wins since 2011, when they were embarrassed in the National Championship game by current arch nemesis Alabama.

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Can LSU football turn things around and reach 11 wins again in 2016? They certainly have the talent everywhere but quarterback – and we’ll see how that position pans out in 2016. Let’s see how LSU football stacks up against their 2016 schedule.

LSU Football 2016 Schedule

Wisconsin (Green Bay, Wisconsin) – Win. This is coldblooded LSU football. They took their defensive coordinator months before playing them with no Melvin Gordon. Tigers win by 2+ scores.

Jacksonville State – win.

Mississippi State – win. Before the magical 2014 victory, Mississippi State hadn’t won against LSU football in Baton Rouge in longer than they would like me to remind you. They almost coughed that game up and LSU will restore order in this series. 

@Auburn – Toss-up. One of these Tigers will disappoint, the other will overachieve. Who knows which will be which, however.

Missouri – Win. The Tigers just don’t have enough on offense to go into Baton Rouge and challenge LSU football.

@Florida – Loss. The Tigers were barely able to get past the Gators without Will Grier in 2015. Florida will have it figured out by this point in the season and pull out an upset win at home.

Southern Miss – Win. The Tigers will come out slow after suffering a loss and underestimating Southern Miss. Leonard Fournette will break some big runs late to blow this game open, though.

Ole Miss – Toss-up. Getting the Rebels at home will be a huge boost to the Tigers. Hugh Freeze has had his Rebels ready to score on LSU’s defense every year except 2014. The Rebels won’t rely on their defense, though, and some risk taking could lead to a high point total for Chad Kelly and Co. 

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Alabama – Loss. Someone was smiling on LSU football when they made their 2016 schedule. They get Mississippi State, Ole Miss and now Alabama at home. Miles hasn’t had success against Saban in years, recent though. I’ll take Alabama to win a slugfest.

@ Arkansas – Toss-up. I think Arkansas will struggle for bowl eligibility this season but the Alabama effect is very real. The Tigers will be hurting and coming off at least their second loss of the season. That may be enough for Arkansas to pull out an upset victory over their rival.

South Alabama – Win.

@ Texas A&M – Toss-up. I think former LSU football defensive coordinator will have Texas A&M’s talented defense up to speed in 2016. If I had to put money down, I’d say Texas A&M saves Sumlin’s job in an ironic parody of the same game last year.

must read: SEC Storied Gives LSU Moment It's Due

LSU Football: 11 or No?

I’m not sure who Vegas thinks bets these lines, but they clearly think LSU football faithful will be betting high on the Tigers. I think the Tigers will definitely lose two and will drop at least one of their toss-ups. I think 9.5 wins is the appropriate line here, not 10.5. Unless the over/under drops, steer clear of LSU football in 2016.