South Carolina: Was 2014 a Slip or Slide?
When media, coaches, and players assembled in Birmingham, Alabama for the 2015 SEC Media Days, the media predicted the winner of the SEC Championship game as well as divisional winners. The top three finishers in both the SEC East and West, as well as Arkansas, have been covered so far in this series.
Georgia (166), Auburn (108) and Alabama (92) ran away with the first place division votes. Tennessee (36) was far behind, but also fairly well ahead of most of the other teams in the SEC. The next closest team was Missouri (20). After Missouri, no team received more than 10 first place division votes (LSU). Arkansas (6) leads the rest of the SEC teams, though none of them are viewed as serious threats to win their division by the media.
South Carolina (1) leads the bottom four of the SEC East, though three teams each received only one first place vote. The Gamecocks lead the way by virtue of essentially receiving the least votes to finish last among the remaining teams.
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After reeling off three straight 11-win seasons from 2011-13, South Carolina hit a nosedive season in 2014. Instead of building from recent momentum, the Gamecocks had their worst season since 2009. It was unexpected, as South Carolina entered the season as a Top 10 team.
South Carolina’s defense failed them, though, and the Gamecocks had to claw their way to a bowl and win it to remain above .500. This spurred Spurrier to call Jon Hoke, an old friend who coordinated some of Spurrier’s defenses during his glory days at Florida, to be co-defensive coordinator for the Gamecocks.
Will the defensive coordinator change be enough to see South Carolina return to conference relevance? What could happen to bring Spurrier even closer to retirement?
What Needs to go Right . . .
As with so many other teams in the SEC this season, South Carolina must first find a starting quarterback to replace a veteran. Dylan Thompson had a nice run as the quarterback for the Gamecocks, including setting a school single-season record for passing yards in 2014 with 3,564. Connor Mitch appears to be the answer at quarterback, but South Carolina must also find a new running back after Mike Davis ventured to the NFL. Filling each position adequately and early will be key for the Gamecocks to have a chance at contending in
Nov 15, 2014; Gainesville, FL, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Pharoh Cooper (11) runs with the ball against the Florida Gators during the first quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
2015. South Carolina’s 2014 defensive stats may cause you to wonder how they were even able to make a bowl game last year. In order for the Gamecocks to truly contend, however, Jon Hoke must absolutely transform their defense. In addition to finding backfield replacements and transforming a defense, South Carolina must also find a way to navigate a tough 2015 schedule. After opening with North Carolina, USCe immediately has their first must-win of the season. South Carolina hosts Kentucky in week 2; they must win this game. If the Gamecocks stumble against Kentucky, their hopes of a shocking run to Atlanta end immediately. South Carolina must also find a way to split games between its two SEC West opponents: LSU and Texas A&M. If they accomplish this, they still must travel to all three teams predicted to finish ahead of them in 2015. This team and their schedule do not combine to instill confidence at a bid for the SEC Championship. South Carolina will have to have several teams ahead of them stumble and be able to represent the SEC East with multiple losses to have a fighting chance at making it to Atlanta.
What Could go Wrong . . .
While Jon Hoke has spent his years since leaving Florida in the NFL, it has been as an assistant coach. If Hoke fails to make a big impact on South Carolina in 2015, just reaching another bowl game will immediately be the goal of the season. If Connor Mitch is unable to provide above average play from the quarterback position, the Gamecocks will also be unable to contend for the SEC East. Surprisingly, though, the quarterback has not been an exceptionally strong position for South Carolina under Spurrier anyway. Big play wide receivers and bruising running backs have been the staple of Spurrier’s offenses in Columbia. While Pharoh Cooper has the wide receiver portion locked up, an adequate replacement for Mike Davis will be harder to find. If an satisfactory replacement is not found, South Carolina’s attempts at breaking in a new quarterback will be even more of a struggle. Finally, the 2015 schedule could be brutal for South Carolina. As mentioned before, South Carolina must travel to Georgia, Missouri, AND Tennessee. Each team will likely be favored at home. South Carolina can likely only afford to drop one of these and still expect to have a shot at the SEC East crown. That still leaves games against Florida, LSU, and at Texas A&M. Even if South Carolina’s defense is improved, it will be a struggle not to drop four of those games. South Carolina may improve in 2015 but adding more than a game or two in the win column will be a struggle. Such is life in the SEC.
Worth Considering . . .
Jon Hoke’s specialty in the NFL was working with defensive backs and coordinating against team’s passing attacks. The biggest weakness of South Carolina’s defense, though, was an inept defensive line.
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Some teams benefitted from the schedule shuffling that transpired when Missouri and Texas A&M joined the conference. Others saw their schedule become even more brutal. The trade-off for South Carolina having such a brutal road schedule in 2015 is that, obviously, those same SEC East teams must travel to Columbia in 2016. Instead of annually having an even schedule, South Carolina will alternate seasons of having a great home schedule and brutal road schedule.
South Carolina being picked to finish fourth may even be generous. Depending on if you believe Will Muschamp or Jim McElwain, Florida could have a deep and talented roster. If McElwain can implement an offense, Florida’s defense immediately makes them a sleeper contender. The Gamecocks’ goal for 2015 should be to improve on its win total, not dream about making it to Atlanta.
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