Florida Football: Can Jim McElwain Spark a Title Run?

When media, coaches, and players assembled in Birmingham, Alabama for the 2015 SEC Media Days, the media predicted the winner of the SEC Championship as well as divisional winners. The top four finishers in both the SEC East and West, as well as Ole Miss, have been covered so far in this series.

Georgia (166), Auburn (108) and Alabama (92) ran away with the first place division votes. Tennessee (36) was far behind, but also fairly well ahead of most of the other teams in the SEC. The next closest team was Missouri (20).

After Missouri, no team received more than 10 first place division votes (LSU). Arkansas (6) leads the rest of the SEC teams, though none of them are viewed as serious threats to win their division by the media. South Carolina (1) leads the bottom four of the SEC East, though three teams each received one first place vote. While Ole Miss (3) received less first place votes than Texas A&M (4), more voters still predicted the Rebels would finish ahead of the Aggies.

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Florida is a part of the group that received one first place vote in the SEC. Overall they finished behind South Carolina and ahead of Kentucky. Barely edging out Kentucky is not the level of success, or lack thereof, Florida faithful are accustomed to. It will be up to Jim McElwain to right the ship in 2015.

Florida had a suffocating defense under Will Muschamp. Unfortunately, Florida’s offense under Muschamp had a habit of suffocating itself. McElwain will have to make some drastic strides in that department for Florida to contend in 2015.

What needs to happen for Florida to shake off the rust off and become a SEC contender again in 2015? What could happen to make Florida AD Jeremy Foley immediately regret the decision of hiring Jim McElwain?

What Needs to go Right . . .

For what feels like the 100^th time in this series, there is a quarterback competition that must end well for the Florida Gators to have a shot at making a trip to Atlanta in 2015. My money is on Will Grier and I think he will impress early and often under McElwain. Although considering the precarious situation of Florida’s offensive line, that may not be the best prediction. Florida exited spring practice with only 6 healthy offensive linemen. Treon Harris and his mobility may be the solution in year one of the McElwain Era. Florida’s offensive line must remain healthy for the

Oct 18, 2014; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators defensive back Vernon Hargreaves III (1) against the Missouri Tigers during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Gators to have a shot at winning the SEC East. What else do the Gators need to go right? They need Geoff Collins to maintain the level of defense that Muchamp was producing. It should not be too hard this year, as Florida returns a plethora of players who could produce on memory alone. In-game management by Collins will be crucial, though. As far as the schedule goes, Florida has it about as good as they could hope for. They play four of their first 5 games in friendly confines of The Swamp and do not face an elite SEC defense until week 5. Things are not too brutal after that either. They play two road games (Mizzou, LSU) against teams that likely will not be as dominant as usual and have a bye week before their neutral site meeting with Georgia. Florida will have to upset Georgia, again, to have a shot at winning the SEC East. Following the Georgia game, there is not an unwinnable game left on the schedule.

What Could go Wrong . . .

Whichever quarterback wins the competition, there is a possibility things do not go well. If McElwain opts for Harris, McElwain’s offense will have to be altered to fit his playing style. That may take some adjustment time that the Gators will not have if they hope to win the SEC East. If Florida opts for Grier and the line does not stay healthy, Grier could be forced into bad decisions and/or (hopefully not) be unable to stay upright all season. Either way, it is not a decision anyone should be envious of. Another problem could arise if the Gators do not respond as well to Geoff Collins’ coaching style. The talent is obviously there, as Muschamp had this defense producing at an elite level a year ago. Coaching changes do not always go smoothly, however, and the defensive players may not like Collins’ approach. He may especially run into problems if he implements the 1A-1B system he used at Mississippi State. Then there is the schedule. Florida only plays back-to-back away games once all year, a huge plus. But they still have challenges. The Gators could lose to both of their conference opponents from the SEC West (Ole Miss, @LSU). If that were to happen, they would likely have to win 3 out of 4 against Georgia, Tennessee, Mizzou, and South Carolina just to hope to be in contention. Even then, it would be highly unlikely.

Worth Considering . . .

Much like South Carolina, the Florida Gators’ focus in 2015 should be increasing their win total from a year ago, not winning the SEC East. But this is Florida we are talking about. Fan expectations are not the same as they are in Columbia. If McElwain does not improve the offense quickly, his comfort level will dissipate quickly.

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Florida being picked to finish 5^th seems low. The only two teams they are better than in their division are Kentucky and Vanderbilt? I am not buying it. No, I do not think they have a shot at winning the SEC East this year unless they get some help. I also do not see them finishing in the bottom three of their division.

Florida’s defense should be fine and McElwain has a track record of proven success on offense. If he recruits well, Florida should be back in contention in no time. But in 2015, Gators will have to be content in proving the doubters wrong and finishing above 5^th. Anything more is simply unrealistic.

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