Texas A&M Football:  A Chavis for a Championship?

When media, coaches, and players assembled in Birmingham, Alabama for the 2015 SEC Media Days, the media predicted the winner of the SEC Championship as well as divisional winners.  The top five finishers in both the SEC East and West have been covered so far in this series.

Georgia (166), Auburn (108) and Alabama (92) ran away with the first place division votes.  Tennessee (36) was far behind, but also fairly well ahead of most of the other teams in the SEC.  The next closest team was Missouri (20).  After Missouri, no team received more than 10 first place division votes (LSU).

Arkansas (6) leads the rest of the SEC teams, though none of them are viewed as serious threats to win their division by the media.  South Carolina (1) leads the bottom four of the SEC East, though three teams each received only one first place vote.  Florida is a part of the group that received one first place vote in the SEC.  Overall they finished behind South Carolina and ahead of Kentucky.  While Ole Miss (3) received less first place votes than Texas A&M (4), more voters still predicted the Rebels would finish ahead of the Aggies.

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Texas A&M made possibly the biggest coaching change of the off-season, prying John Chavis away from LSU.  While A&M has had a fairly consistent offense since the arrival of Sumlin, the defense has been lagging behind.  The hope is that by adding Chavis, A&M can challenge for conference supremacy in 2015.

What needs to happen for A&M to become a legitimate SEC West contender after regressing in wins the last two years?  Is it possible that the addition of Chavis will not work and A&M continues to go backwards?

What Needs to go Right . . .

The offense of Texas A&M is not a point of concern in 2015.  Between Kyle Allen or Kyler Murray and a host of top-notch receivers, the Aggies’ offense should continue to score without a problem.  What Texas A&M needs to go right is for the defense to step up in a big way.  John Chavis does not have to deliver an elite unit in his first season in college station.  Even an average defense will aid the Aggies increase their win total.  If Chavis is able to mold a top 25

Nov 15, 2014; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Kyle Allen (10) looks for an open receiver during the first quarter against the Missouri Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

defense out of the talent available to him at Texas A&M, though, the Aggies could challenge for the SEC West Title.  The schedule should also aid TAMU in its pursuit of a SEC West Division Title.  Due to playing to multiple “neutral site” games, the Aggies will only travel outside of Texas three times during the regular season.  If Chavis delivers an efficient defense and the Aggies can take advantage of a friendly schedule, Texas A&M has a shot of surprising nearly everyone and challenging for a trip to Atlanta.

What Could go Wrong . . .

John Chavis has spent the last two decades working for old school-type coaches.  Between Phillip Fulmer and Les Miles, Chavis had an idea of what to expect from a game.  Both coaches ran the ball and tried to field efficient offenses that did not constantly leave their defenses stranded on the field.  Chavis will have to adjust to playing with a different style of offense under Sumlin.   There will be stretches where the Aggies have back-to-back quick scores and multiple times a game where they go 3 and out.  The defense will be called upon much more often than Chavis is used to.  The defense will have to defend many more plays per game.  Delivering a defense that can statistically measure up to his better units from LSU will be nearly impossible.  A&M will also be playing some good offensive units.  Although they only play 3 games outside of Texas (Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and LSU), they could easily lose 2 out of those 3.  The schedule sets up in a friendly fashion if you only account for where the games are being played.  Their six week stretch of Arkansas (neutral site)-Mississippi State-Alabama-@Ole Miss-South Carolina-Auburn is one of the toughest stretches any team will play this season.  If A&M is unable to win more often than they lose in that stretch, meaning winning at least 4 of those games, they are out of SEC West contention before the last three games of the season.

Worth Considering . . .

If Chavis fails as defensive coordinator at A&M, does that mean the Aggies begin looking elsewhere for a head coach?  They have poured even more funds into the program since joining the SEC.  Paying a hefty price for Chavis was just the latest example.  If Sumlin cannot win with one of the one of the best coordinators in football, can he win at all?

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I do not think Chavis fails, but it is worth noting.  Success will not mean turning A&M into an elite defensive unit in year one anyhow.  Chavis and Co. will first have to break some bad habits and form the defense to fit what the Aggies need.

This year will likely be a transformation year for Texas A&M.  The transformation will not lead them to winning the SEC West in 2015, but I would put my own money down that they do finish better than 6^th this year.

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