Mississippi State Football: First to Worst in 2015?

When media, coaches, and players assembled in Birmingham, Alabama for the 2015 SEC Media Days, the media predicted the winner of the SEC Championship and divisional winners. The top six finishers in both the SEC East and West have been covered so far in this series.

Georgia (166), Auburn (108) and Alabama (92) ran away with the first place division votes. Tennessee (36) was far behind, but also fairly well ahead of most of the other teams in the SEC. The next closest team was Missouri (20). After Missouri, no team received more than 10 first place division votes (LSU). Arkansas (6) leads the rest of the SEC teams, though none of them are viewed as serious threats to win their division by the media.

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In the SEC East, South Carolina (1) leads the bottom four of the SEC East. There were two other teams that also received one first place vote, however. Florida is a part of the group that received one first place vote in the SEC. Overall they finished behind South Carolina and ahead of Kentucky (1).

While Ole Miss (3) received less first place votes than Texas A&M (4), more voters still predicted the Rebels would finish ahead of the Aggies. Mississippi State (2) was projected to finish last in the SEC West in 2015.

Mississippi State had a spectacular season in 2014. After beginning season unranked, they debuted at the #1 spot in the first ever College Football Playoff Poll. MSU maintained their #1 ranking for several weeks before losing in Tuscaloosa.

The Bulldogs also lost their season finale against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, as well as the Orange Bowl to Georgia Tech. Losing their last two games helps explains some of the media’s doubts heading into 2015. It seems a little extreme to place them 7^th in the SEC West, though.

What would need to need to happen for Mississippi State to have an even more impressive 2015 and make the trip to Atlanta? What could knock the Bulldogs off course to the point they finish last in their division in 2015?

What Needs to go Right . . .

Mississippi State has a huge advantage compared to many teams in the SEC, particularly the SEC West. They have Dak Prescott. Not only is he entrenched as the starter, he is a dark horse Heisman contender. Teams like Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and even Arkansas would trade their 2015 quarterback for Dak in a heartbeat. In order for MSU to avoid the cellar, Prescott will have to remain healthy all season. Dak is not the only player that must stay healthy. Mississippi State did not lose as much from their defense as the media makes it out to be, but they did lose a lot of starters. While many 2014 subs

Dec 31, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (15) in the second quarter Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

must step up, Geoff Collins system of having 1A’s and 1B’s on defense means those subs have gotten invaluable game repetitions under their belt already. In order for the Bulldogs to build on 2014, their defense must not drop-off. Mississippi State must also find a replacement for Josh Robinson at running back and have more effective play from the offensive line. Mississippi State does not have any non-conference games worth mentioning; we’ll jump right into the key conference games. The Bulldogs will know after week 4 if they are going to contend for an SEC West title. They host LSU in week 2 and travel to Auburn in week 4. In order to contend, they must at least split those games. If they can do that, the final four games of the season will be a grueling race to the finish (@Mizzou, Bama, @Arkansas, Egg Bowl).

What Could go Wrong . . .

If Mississippi State loses Dak Prescott, the Bulldogs will not contend for the SEC West title. They would still win their non-conference games and manage to make it to a bowl, but it would probably be in a scenario like Arkansas last year: making a bowl as the last place team in the SEC West. If the Bulldogs fail to find an adequate replacement for Josh Robinson and his downhill running style, MSU will be in trouble. If no running back is found and the offensive line does not produce, it could be a long 2015 for Dan Mullen’s crew. Much of Dak Prescott’s strength comes from the running game and read option. Without the threat of a running game, Mississippi State’s opponents’ defensive game plan becomes much simpler. But what would it take for the Bulldogs to finish last? Not much if they do not split their first two SEC games. Outside of last year, LSU has owned MSU. Auburn is projected to be one of the top two teams in the SEC West. It is not outlandish to speculate that State could start 2-2 (0-2) in 2015. If that were to happen, things could snowball quickly. Week 5 entails a road trip to College Station. Weeks 6-8 contain a test against Kentucky and not much else. Following a week 9 bye, Mississippi State closes with the 4 games listed previously. If State does not get off to a fast start, they could fall to the bottom quickly.

Worth Considering . . .

A $4 million a year coach will finish last in the SEC West this year. One fan base will undoubtedly feel like they overpaid for their coach. Even if it is Mississippi State at the bottom, fans will still support Mullen. 2014 was arguably the greatest season in Bulldog history.

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There is a bit of irony about the 2014 season, though. Coming off a 20-7 loss to Alabama in 2013, Mississippi State sat at 4-6 with two remaining games. They had to travel to Little Rock to play Arkansas and host Ole Miss. Many Bulldog fans were ready to kick off a firedanmullen website and were just waiting for him to lose one of the last two and officially remove State from bowl contention. State won both, in overtime, and won their bowl in dominant fashion. There is a lesson about patience somewhere in there.

Irony and jaw-dropping salaries aside, someone has to finish last in the SEC West. Every team has questions. Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss all need solid quarterback play. Auburn and Texas A&M need a defense. Arkansas just lost half its rushing attack according to ESPN. MSU is a player away from last. It will be a fun subplot to watch in a wild 2015 season, but I do not like Mississippi State’s chances of finishing in the top half of the SEC West in 2015.

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