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Southbound and Down Staff Pick ‘Em (Week 5)

By John Richardson

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In the month of September, we introduced you to this series, prematurely told you to ring up Vegas, became wildly average and finally found our footing once again.  Week 4, which was full of tough contests to pick and games that most everyone in America got wrong against the spread (Ole Miss-Vandy), was absolutely dominant for the staff here at Southbound and Down.  Last week our picks were hot … I think it might be that time again.

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We may have pieced together the SEC puzzle and have the hot picks.  I, for one, know that I do.  Ya boy is back above .500 after the embarrassment that was week 2 of the 2015 SEC season.  Every other week has been good to me and if I had money to gamble, Vegas would be hating me.  If you’ve been riding with our picks, you’re likely making new car payments by now.

Our record heads-up has remained impressive throughout.  Now our ATS picks are slowly becoming respectable, if not downright impressive.  With further ado, welcome to week five of the first annual Southbound and Down Staff Pick ‘Em.

A few of us will provide some commentary and explain our predictions.  Some have dropped out of the race for SEC Pick ‘Em supremacy; others are supremely confident.  Additionally, we may have occasional special pickers or have some staff members only participate sporadically.

Week 3 Results:

John 9-1 ATS 9-1

Andrew 10-0 ATS 7-3

Ben R 10-0 ATS 5-5

Lee 8-1 ATS 6-3

Neal 10-0 ATS 8-2

Overall Results:

John:  40-5 ATS 25-20 (feels incredible to be back above .500)

Neal: 38-7 ATS 24-20-1

Ben R:  39-6 ATS 25-20

Andrew:  27-7 ATS 17-15

Ben M:  19-2 ATS 16-7

Ryan: 18-4 ATS  11-11

David 12-1 ATS 9-4

Lee 20-2 ATS 17-6

South Carolina (+3.5) V Mizzou

John:  I’ll take Nunez to have a big day and South Carolina to pull the upset.  I’m not even sure how Mizzou is favored in this game.

Ben R:  South Carolina is just so so bad.  Missouri is just so so bad.  In a battle of disappointing squads, I’m taking South Carolina to win and cover because the only thing worse than their defense is Missouri’s offense.

Andrew:  Missouri wins 17-10

Ryan:  Missouri wins by three does not cover spread

Neal: Both teams don’t look particularly sharp right now.  I think Missouri’s defense is stronger.

Missouri 17 South Carolina 13

Confidence in Missouri: 7/10

Lee: I hate to use the transitive property, but considering that the Gamecocks put up a harder fight against Kentucky (with the infamous Connor Mitch playing quarterback in the first half) I’ll take Carolina. Nunez could have a big day at quarterback, and SC is due for a conference victory. ‘Zou will cover the spread, and Spurrier wins by a field goal.

 

Alabama (+1.5) V Georgia

John:  I’m going against all my instincts and picking UGA.   I can’t type more or I’ll change my mind.

Ben R: Greyson Lambert.  Are you really this good?  I bet you’re not, and with a defense loaded up to stop the run and Nick Chubb, I think we find out why Lambert is a transfer.  I also just refuse to believe that Alabama will have 2 losses by the first weekend in October.  Give me Alabama to cover for the win.  Side note, I bet Derrick Henry finishes with more yards rushing than Nick Chubb.  You should see what that is paying out.

Andrew:  Georgia wins 38-35

Ryan:  Alabama wins and covers

Neal: This one should be a classic.  I’ve gone back, and forth on who wins.  I even reached out to a friend of mine named Blake in Birmingham.  Blake has a JD from Samford Law, so he’s pretty smart.  He’s putting his money on Georgia winning, but thinks it will be close.  Blake thinks a payback will be in order for the 2008 “blackout” game Alabama derailed.

I myself am not quite there.  I don’t know how Alabama will do it, but I’m not ready to write them off, until they show me they’re mailing it in.

Alabama 33 Georgia 31

Confidence in Alabama: 3/10

Lee:

If ‘Bama comes out victorious, this could arguably be a preview of the first week of December in the Georgia Dome. This uber-talented southern slugfest could go either way. However, I’m feeling lucky with the ‘Dawgs. Take ’em for the upset.

Auburn (-20.5) V San Jose St 

John:  Auburn wins, the quarterback situation becomes even more resolved…but there are still questions as to why Auburn was favored to win the West after San Jose State covers the spread.

Ben R: Auburn wins and covers.  I hope.

Andrew:  Auburn wins 28-10

Ryan:  No pick

Neal: Will San Jose State pull the upset?  As bad as Auburn is I still don’t see it.  I’d love to get inside that locker room, and those coaches offices to see what’s going on.

Auburn 34 San Jose State 16

Confidence in Auburn: 6/10

Lee: Against Californian cupcake San Jose State, the Tigers learn how to score a few points. Take Aubie and the points.

 

Arkansas (+7.5) V Tennessee

 

John:  I’ve got to agree with Ben (below) on this one.  I can’t imagine either team winning by more than a TD.  Give me UT for the W and Arkansas to cover.

Ben R: Can UT bounce back again?  Does Arkansas even care any more?  Hard to see either team winning by more than a touchdown.  I’ll take UT to win and Arkansas to cover.

Andrew: Tennessee wins 24-17

Ryan:  Tennessee wins and covers

Neal: (Weekly Regret Pick Alert)  Heartbreakers for both in week four.  Both arguably threw the games away.  We’re about to find out which program is going to be throwing in the towel once this one is over.  To me, Arkansas stands the most to lose if they don’t win this game.  Go look at their remaining schedule.  It’s scary.  Tennessee can manage with a mild East.  Arkansas is the most desperate team, in my opinion.  I think the Razorbacks just might be dangerous enough to get the job done.

Arkansas 28 Tennessee 24

Confidence in Arkansas: 1/10

Lee: Saturday’s ultimate lame-duck matchup… Arkansas and Tennessee. The cross-state rivals are always a popular preseason pick. Yet, both the Razorbacks and the Vols always manage to disappoint. With so much talent on both sides, we’re left to wonder how and why they screw up in big matchups so often. I would go with Tennessee, but I picked them to take Florida last weekend. Arkansas is a weird-natured team, so expect the unexpected. I’m taking the Pigs and the points.

LSU (-46.5) V E Michigan

John: There really isn’t any doubt about this game.  Several writers would rather pick Fournette’s yardage…and I wish I would have thought about it.  46.5 is a lot to cover when the starters won’t play the 4th quarter.  LSU wins, E Michigan covers on a garbage time score.

Ben R: 46.5 is just too large.  LSU wins, Eastern Michigan covers.

Andrew:  LSU wins 45-6

Ryan:  LSU wins but does not cover spread

Neal: May be we should take a stab at how many yards Fournette will have this weekend, instead of the LSU-Eastern Michigan line.  John Richardson, here’s looking at you.

LSU 43 Eastern Michigan 7

Confidence in LSU: 10

Lee:     Let’s do an over/under for Leonard Fournette’s yard total. We might not see the Heisman frontrunner after the half. Take LSU and the points. Next.

Mississippi (-6.5) V Florida

John: This matchup was one of the most intriguing to me before the season started.  Florida always recruits well and the memories of Tebow’s speech were bound to arise when this game rolled around.  I don’t think Florida has the offense to keep up with the Rebels, though the Rebels won’t score close to their average against Florida’s elite secondary.  Give me Ole Miss to win and cover….by .5.

Ben R:  Back up the Brinks truck!  Upset special (if VHIII is healthy).  Will Grier showed flashes of a quarterback that UF hasn’t had in years.  Despite a struggling offense line, Grier has shown the ability to extend plays and hit the open wide receiver.  He is missing some receivers, but he is growing.  On the other hand, Chad Kelly already has a signature win under his belt, but went out and put up a stinker against a Vandy defense that hadn’t forced a turnover all year.  Chad Kelly gave them their first two.  Jalen Tabor will be back, and if VHIII is healthy, then the match up between him and Treadwell will be amazing to watch.  Ole Miss showed a scary bad inability to run the ball, and if Bullard is healthy for Florida…..watch out.  Kelvin Taylor looks strong and Cronkrite has served as an excellent number 2. Give me UF to cover and to win!  Plus my Ole Miss brother wrote “Gators suck” on my bathroom mirror, and karma works like that.

Andrew:  Mississippi wins 27-14

Ryan:  Ole Miss wins by multiple scores easily covers spread

Neal: This Florida-Ole Miss game is rather interesting.  I was having a hard time deciding what to do, so I used my “text a friend”, and reached out to an old fraternity brother named Ben.

Ben’s response is as follows: “I think we’ll (Ole Miss) be fine.  We were tired and riding high off beating Alabama.  I think Rebs by 3-10 is accurate.  They (Florida) will play us close.” “31-21 Rebs.”

Ole Miss 31 Florida 21

Confidence in Ole Miss: 7/10

Also, Ben made a request that I let everyone know he is single, like’s long walks on the beach, and has a great job.  Ben said if you’re a female Florida Gators fan, and would like to discuss his picking the Rebels over the Gators, he’s open to a face to face discussion.  You can reach Ben on Tinder (Chattanooga, TN area), or drop him a DM via Facebook and/or Twitter.

Confidence in Ben’s chances at landing a Florida sorority girl in Gainesville this weekend: Too many variables to take into consideration at this time.

Lee: Florida looks a lot, lot better than last year. Will Grier is mobile, and the defense is stacked. I’m tempted to take the Gators, but I’ll resist. They’ll cover the spread against high-flying Ole Miss.

Texas A&M (-7) V Mississippi State

John:  People are doubting Texas A&M due to their win against Arizona State losing shine by the week and the squeaker they pulled out against Arkansas.  Count me in that camp…but I’ve been even less impressed with MSU.  TAMU wins and covers.

Ben R:  I really find this line hard to believe.  I just don’t see how State is a bigger under dog than UF, but Vegas usually proves to be smarter than most.  After needing everything they had to beat Arkansas, I can see flashes of the old A&M defense rearing its ugly head.  I’m looking for Dak Prescott to step back into the spotlight this game, and I’m going to take Mississippi State to cover and to win.

Andrew: Mississippi State wins 34-28

Ryan:  Mississippi State pulls out a close one, fails to cover

Neal: Mississippi State may have given Auburn the rope it needs to just go ahead and finish itself off.  The Bulldogs are back on the right track, but the Aggies await in College Station.  I like the 100,000+ Aggies VS the 5,000 Bulldogs in Texas.

Texas A&M 42 Mississippi State 37

Confidence in Texas A&M: 5/10

Lee: So many great matchups this week, so I feel like I’m going to mess up somewhere. Aggies-Bulldogs was a blowout last year, but it won’t be this season. Take A&M in the revenge game, but Bulldogs cover.

Vanderbilt (+3.5) V Middle Tennessee

John:  Is this serious?  This can’t be serious.  Vandy.  Lay all my money down.

Ben R: Maybe Coach Mason has got this team going finally.  I’ll ride with the SEC in my 3rd straight upset pick.  Vandy to cover and win.

Andrew:  Vanderbilt wins 23-9

Ryan:  Vanderbilt easily covers small spread again. Not getting any respect from oddsmakers

Neal: Vanderbilt showed some real fight against Ole Miss, or was that an Ole Miss hangover?  I think Derek Mason calling the defensive shots is a big step in the right direction.  I was a little harsh on the Commodores starting out the season.  I’m beginning to feel that Anchor pulling me down..I know I know..that was a terrible attempt at mixing in Vanderbilt’s “Anchor Down” slogan in to a joke.  Nontheless…

Vanderbilt 27 Middle Tennessee State 14

Confidence in Vanderbilt: 8/10

Lee: Vandy wasn’t too shabby last weekend, and perhaps they’re trending upwards. Vandy, I’m giving you a chance (with the points.)

Kentucky (-14) V E Kentucky

John:  Kentucky should win by way more than they will, but their obviously still working some kinks out.  They’ll cover but it’ll be a game bettors have to sweat out.

Ben R: The state of Kentucky has a real football team and it is not in Louisville.  Towles is like technology.  He makes life easy, but when he isn’t working right, he can be so frustrating because you know what he is capable of when working at full strength.  Give me UK to win and cover.

Andrew: Kentucky wins 35-13

Ryan: Kentucky wins and covers

Neal:  Bluegrass nation picked up another win against an East opponent.  It wasn’t ugly, but the Wildcats move on.  I’m not going to pretend to know anything about Eastern Kentucky.

Kentucky 34 Eastern Kentucky 13

Confidence in Kentucky: 8/10

Lee: This one’s easy. Eastern Kentucky in an upset. Kidding. Take the ‘Cats and the points.

(Bonus Pick) Notre Dame (-2) V Clemson

John:  I picked against Notre Dame in this slot once already this season.  And I’m doing it again.  Another of those if I keep typing…I’ll change my mind.

Ben R: The luck of the Irish finally runs out.  Capping off my 5th upset pick of the week, I’ll take Clemson to win and cover.  The week of the underdog.  Get rich or go broke trying, shout out 50 cent #bankrupt

Andrew:  Clemson wins 28-24

Ryan:  Clemson wins and covers vs. Notre Dame and shows that they are ready to duel FSU for the top spot in the ACC.

Neal:  Clemson 27 Notre Dame 24

Lee: Clemson didn’t look to hot against the ‘Ville, but they’ll be ready for sixth ranked Notre Dame. Or will they? ‘Dame wins in a close one.

 

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