Southbound and Down Staff Pick ‘Em (ATS): Week 6

Ever get tired of hearing the radio ads that talk about their guaranteed picks of the week when listening to sports radio? Yeah. Me too. Unless it was Carl’s “Stone Cold Lock of da century….of da week.” That I actually never got tired of. I’m not here to guarantee anything about these picks. The most solid advice I can give you based Southbound and Down’s Pick ‘Em thus far is you should parlay games heads up and take the picks against the spread (ATS) with a grain of salt.

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Some weeks we’re hot. Some weeks we’re not. Unfortunately for first time readers in week 5 . . . we were not. With the exception of Neal, most us were happy to escape with our worst records outside of week 2 . . . the week that will live in infamy. With further ado, welcome to week five of the first annual Southbound and Down Staff Pick ‘Em.

A few of us will provide some commentary and explain our predictions. Some have dropped out of the race for SEC Pick ‘Em supremacy; others are supremely confident. Additionally, we may have occasional special pickers or have some staff members only participate sporadically.

Week 5 Results:

John 7-3 ATS 6-4

Andrew 6-4 ATS 6-4

Ben R 6-4 ATS 6-4

Ryan 5-4 ATS 4-5

Lee 5-4 ATS 3-7

Neal 9-1 ATS 7-3

Overall Results:

John: 47-8 ATS 31-24

Neal: 47-8 ATS 31-23-1

Ben R: 45-10 ATS 31-24

Andrew: 33-11 ATS 23-19

Ben M: 19-2 ATS 16-7

Ryan: 23-8 ATS 15-16

Lee 25-6 ATS 20-13

The Games:

Games and lines taken from Saturdaydownsouth.com

Ole Miss (-43) V New Mexico State

Sep 19, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) reacts toward the end of the game against Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Rebels defeated the Tide 43-37. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

John: If New Mexico State wasn’t possibly the worst team in college football, I’d pick them to cover. The Rebels should easily cover this spread and would definitely have done so had this game happened in week one or two. But it’s not. Ole Miss wins easily…just not as easily as it won earlier in the season.

Ben R: I fully expect Ole Miss to come out and hang up 70 against New Mexico State. We know what they can do against lesser opponents, it is the next week we are all wondering about. Ole Miss covers the 43 point spread with 10 to spare. I’d consider teasing it to 50 when placing my bet.

Ryan: Ole Miss wins and rebounds after the loss to UF, Covers spread, scores in the 70s again

Neal: The Rebels are stockpiled with NFL talent, but have some deep holes that Vanderbilt and Florida were able to exploit (How in the world Nick Saban and Crew didn’t I have no idea). When Ole Miss is able to put it all together they’re one of the country’s best. When they don’t, they’re one of the SEC worst’s. Ole Miss’s 3 losses in the last 8 games have been absolute blowouts. The next blowout is due, but it won’t happen Saturday.

New Mexico State 17 Ole Miss 58

Lee: After choking at the Swamp to the upstart Gators, Chad Kelly’s struggling offense gets a jumpstart before SEC Western play gets back into gear. The Rebs’ win and cover

LSU (-12.5) V South Carolina

John: Leonard Fournette covers the spread by himself. The defense helps it look even better.

Ben R: The line has opened up at LSU -12.5 but I fully expect LSU to cover that with ease, and that line to move significantly. There is way too much going on in South Carolina outside of football right now for these guys to focus on their numerous problems on the field. Tease it to LSU -19.5, parlay it with Ole Miss if you’re trying to get the odds in your favor in a big way.

Ryan: LSU wins and fails to cover – Fournette still scores three touchdowns

Neal: This game was moved due to flooding in Columbia. Crazy times we live in. Regardless of where it’s played, LSU would win this one handily. The legend of Leonard Fournette continues to grow this Saturday.

LSU 34 South Carolina 12

Lee: Prayers go out to all of the people effected in South Carolina. Along with the tragedy, it’s really unfortunate for this Gamecocks’ team to have to go on the road five times in conference play. A tough road environment, South Carolina fails to cover the spread as Fournette continues his Heisman campaign. LSU wins and covers.

Tennessee (+3.5) V Georgia

Sep 26, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Jalen Hurd (1) runs with the ball against the Florida Gators during the first quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

John: The Dawgs will be looking to embarrass UT like Alabama did them on their home turf. And it’ll happen. Georgia beats Tennessee by two scores and gets the conversation going about the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party

Ben R: There’s no way Tennessee will blow it against Florida like they did against Oklahoma. Wait. There’s no way Tennessee will blow it against Arkansas like they did against Florida. Wait. There’s no way Tennessee is going to let a wounded Georgia team come in to Knoxville and completely send their season down the drain. Wait. AHHHH!!!! Whatever, let’s do it. Tennessee pulls the upset and of course covers.

Ryan: Georgia wins and covers easily

Neal’s Weekly Regret Pick: Both teams are coming off losses. Tennessee’s was probably much easier to swallow compared to a previously undefeated Georgia program that was absolutely destroyed by Alabama. Tennessee wants to give it one more shot at making a statement. Georgia, on the other hand, just wants to get a W. I’m calling for the upset.

Georgia 31 Tennessee 34

Lee: Wow, who would’ve though that Tennessee would begin their ’15 campaign with a losing record with all of the hype? Butch Jones’ hot seat continues to get hotter, and Georgia defeats the Vols once again. After a disheartening loss to ‘Bama, the Dawgs’ win and cover in fashion.

Mississippi State (-31.5) V Troy

John: MSU has not impressed in any facet thus far this season. Their most impressive feat so far came ~~in barely losing to LSU~~ when they “held Leonard Fournette in check” by only allowing him 159 rushing yards. Say what you will, but this is still the only game Fournette has not topped 200 in. Mississippi State allows Troy to hang around and gets close, but fails, to covering the spread.

Ben R: Mississippi State has shown an odd way of letting the little guys hang around, and the offense just hasn’t looked the same this year despite Dak Prescott looking impressive. The touchdowns just aren’t coming with ease like they did last year. I’ll take Troy to cover, and State for the win.

Ryan: Mississippi State wins but fails to cover

Neal: The Bulldogs have no one to blame but themselves after losing out in College Station. Look for Mississippi State to come out guns blazing, and put up lots of points Saturday. Mississippi State will have a say in how the West turns out, bank on it.

Troy 9 Mississippi State 42

Lee: The Bulldogs aren’t quite as close to Atlanta material as they were last year, but the Trojans of Troy don’t have as much fight as the name suggests. In an easy one, Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs win and cover.

Alabama (-16) V Arkansas

Sep 5, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reggie Ragland (19) in game action against the Wisconsin Badgers at AT&T Stadium. Alabama won 35-17. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

John: Nick Saban will find a way to send a message to someone through the media after this game. Whether it be fans, his team, or the media itself . . . this game will provide an opportunity for a classic Saban rant. Alabama by 15.

Ben R: With Arkansas’s only BAD loss turning out to be Toledo, I think their defense is built to handle an Alabama style offense. I doubt Arkansas can move the ball on the ground like they want, but they have shown a willingness to throw the ball around. Even if it hasn’t been perfect, Alabama’s pass defense hasn’t been perfect either. I think Alabama wins, and Arkansas will cover.

Ryan: Alabama wins and covers

Neal:
I feel bad for Arkansas. The Razorbacks just got some confidence back with a conference win over Tennessee, but now travel to Tuscaloosa to take on an Alabama program and fanbase that has it’s ego..I mean confidence back. Alabama is better than Arkansas at pounding the ball away on the ground, and more talented by leaps and bounds.

Arkansas 17 Alabama 37

Lee: Arkansas has been a tough read all year, but kudos to the ‘Pigs for knocking off Tennessee for their first conference win. This one won’t be as easy. ‘Bama and the points.

Missouri (+3) V Florida

John: I don’t want to hear about Mizzou not getting respect in the SEC. Florida just dismantled a top 5 team last week and Missouri…has won against cupcakes. I have no clue how this spread isn’t bigger…but it makes it an easy money pick. Florida covers.

Ben R: Listening to the Chris Vernon Show in Memphis, I heard Marlon Walls say that the Gators’ win against Tennessee “sparked their season”. He cited that the UF team that played UK, and everyone prior, did not look the same as the team that played Ole Miss this past weekend. We are still trying to decide if Florida is that good, or Ole Miss blew it that bad, but one thing is certain: Will Grier went 24-29 with 4 touchdowns against an Ole Miss defense that had only allowed 6 passing touchdowns their first 4 games according to olemisssports.com. Did I mention that was in the first half? Missouri’s defense may sneak up on Florida though if UF is overlooking them to rivalry games against LSU and Georgia. Mizzou’s defense is still very, very good and could give the UF line fits. That offense though. I still believe it is a work in progress, or more like, maybe, not working or progressing. UF defense holds the line on the road and covers the -3.

Ryan: Florida continues to impress/shock people in the SEC East, asserts defensive dominance against the Tigers in a low scoring game. Covers the three point spread 22-14 +/- 3 each way.

Neal: Is this a trap game for the Gators in Columbia? Florida exposed Ole Miss, and beat the Rebels in all facets of the game. Ole Miss didn’t know what hit them by the second quarter. Florida is a better team than I gave them credit for. I really want to take Missouri in Columbia, but I’m not jumping off the Florida train until it loses steam. For Missouri’s sake, I hope none of the Florida players have the flu.

Florida 23 Missouri 16

Lee: If Mizzou thinks they’re improved after knocking off South Carolina, they should think again. Unless I’m mistaken, this Gators team looks like a contender rather than a pretender. Take UF and the points.

Next: SEC Heisman Hopeful (Post Week 5)

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