ATS: Southbound and Down Staff Pick 'Em (Week 7)

I’m done being modest. We have some SEC FANatics on this site and we should be getting paid to make these picks. Outside of an abysmal week 2 our record has been immaculate. And I mean . . . not many saw Toledo beating Arkansas. I’d say no one, but Ryan Summers predicted that before the season even started. We also thought South Carolina was going to be decent, so I hope you can forgive the exception to the rule that was week 2.

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With further ado, welcome to week six of the first annual Southbound and Down Staff Pick ‘Em. A few of us will provide some commentary and explain our predictions. Some have dropped out of the race for SEC Pick ‘Em supremacy; others are supremely confident. Additionally, we may have occasional special pickers or have some staff members only participate sporadically.

Before we get to the picks, let’s take a glance at our results thus far. A trend that has developed is that our worst pickers in any given week still have winning records heads up and are at least .500 against the spread (ATS). Vegas should be consulting with us before we release our picks.

Week 6 Results

John 5-1 ATS 5-1

Ben 6-0 ATS 6-0

Ryan 5-1 ATS 3-3

Neal 6-0 ATS 3-3

Lee 5-1 ATS 3-3

Overall

John: 52-9 ATS 36-25

Neal: 53-8 ATS 34-26-1

Ben R: 51-10 ATS 37-24

Andrew: 33-11 ATS 23-19

Ben M: 19-2 ATS 16-7

Ryan: 28-9 ATS 18-19

Lee 30-7 ATS 23-16

Ben Richardson has taken over the top spot ATS due to a perfect week 6 and Neal Wilkerson is sitting happy with the top spot in heads up picks. I’ll be gunning for them both this week. There are fewer games than there were to open the season so I’ll have to be on my A game.

The Matchups*:

*Spreads provided by teamrankings.com are being used

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football-weekly-odds

Neal Wilkerson stepped it up and provided key features and the weather for the matchups.

Auburn (-2.5) V Kentucky

Oct 3, 2015; Lexington, KY, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Patrick Towles (14) runs the ball during the game against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Commonwealth Stadium. Kentucky defeated Eastern Kentucky 34-27 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Neal Wilkerson: (Evening Kickoff) *Thursday Night SPECIAL

Lexington, KY Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 8 mph. Fair temperature

These Thursday night games are an added boost for the home teams. I’m not so sure the Wildcats would even need any extra help against Auburn. I like Kentucky’s defense, and Auburn’s offense is no threat. Give me the Wildcats at home on Thursday night.

Auburn 17 Kentucky 27

Andrew: This match-up features two teams headed in completely opposite directions. Auburn is on the brink of a disastrous season, while the Wildcats look to stay in the SEC East race. Kentucky wins a close one on the Bluegrass, 21-20.

Ben R: I’ve battled back and forth with this pick because I know that Auburn SHOULD have a more talented team. The distraction of losing Duke Williams, the team still breaking in a new quarterback and the complete lack of defensive support has me leaning towards Kentucky. Patrick Towles is that dude for UK. I’m going to take UK to win and cover.

Ryan: Kentucky wins by 3-7 points and closely covers the 2.5 pt spread against Auburn – Gus on the hot seat flying on the wings of the War Eagle

John: I would have never dreamed before the season that the staff would unanimously pick Kentucky in this game. I’m extremely tempted to pick Auburn just to gamble on taking an extra game that the staff picked the opposite of, but they don’t get to see each other’s picks before they’re published. So I’ll do the honorable thing and stick with Kentucky.

Mississippi State (-14) V Louisiana Tech

Oct 10, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (15) drops back to pass during the first half of the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium. Mississippi State won 45-17. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: (Early Kickoff)

Starkville, MS Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 10 mph. Fair temperature

The line stands at -14 Mississippi State as of this writing. I have to admit I’m rather shocked at how low it is. The Bulldogs seem to always put up big points against smaller out of conference foes. I like the Bulldogs big.

Louisiana Tech 13 Mississippi State 42

Andrew: Another tuneup game for Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs. Big win for Mississippi State, 35-17.

Ben R: Louisiana Tech walked into Manhattan and gave K-State all that they could handle, eventually losing by 6. Their only other loss came to a Western Kentucky team that is 5-1 and their lone loss is to the surprisingly good Indiana Hoosiers. They lost that game by only 3. I think Louisiana Tech is going to scare the cowbell out of the Starkvegas faithful but eventually come up short. Louisiana Tech covers, State wins.

Ryan: Mississippi State covers and if Dak Prescott is back they score a lot of points over La Tech

John: Sure Louisana Tech has looked pretty impressive this year. The biggest thing with me picking this game, though, is that I have not been impressed with Mississippi State. I think they are exactly where most preseason experts thought they would be, Auburn and Arkansas are just much worse. State wins, Tech covers.

Mississippi (-10) V Memphis

Oct 3, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Mississippi Rebels defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (5) works out prior to the game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: (Early Kickoff) *Rivalry Game

Memphis, TN Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 13 mph. Fair temperature

I look for both offenses to put up points in this one. Memphis is a scoring machine, and Ole Miss is equally as much against inferior non conference opponents. A rivalry aspect is factored in, and Memphis will certainly bring the intensity. Will Ole Miss meet, and possibly raise the Memphis intensity? Memphis will score on Ole Miss’s defense, but I think the Ole Miss offense will score more.

Ole Miss 49 Memphis 38

Andrew: Memphis may be undefeated, but that doesn’t mean they can hang around a team as talented as Ole Miss. The Rebels have blown out every team they’re supposed to, and they’ll do so again this Saturday against the Tigers. Ole Miss wins big, 42-21

Ben R: Living in Memphis, I’ve been exposed to more Memphis football than I ever expected. Two things you need to know: 1. Paxton Lynch is the real deal, and even Mel Kiper Jr. currently has him as a first round qb. 2. Their defense has 8 new starters and they have absolutely been LIT UP. Take the over (67.5) and I believe Ole Miss ‘ s defense will manage to make 3 or 4 stops, but the Memphis defense will make the stops Chad Kelly gives to them. I’m going to bet he has 1 interception and that’s their only stop of the game. Ole Miss wins and covers.

Ryan: Ole Miss defense shows up against Memphis and Chad Kelly stays hot – Rebels cover.

John: Chad Kelly puts up video game numbers against a ranked foe to lead the Rebels to a win it what will be a high scoring affair. These Landsharks are not the 2014 version and Memphis will be able to move the ball. Ole Miss wins and covers.

Alabama (-5) V Texas A&M

Oct 10, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry (2) walks off the field following the Crimson Tides 27-14 victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: *CBS Choice **Division Ramifications

College Station, TX Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 11 mph. Warm temperature

I really like the Aggies to win at home against Alabama this year. The Crimson Tide remain arguably the more complete team in the SEC, but I like the matchup of A&M’s offense going against Alabama’s secondary. I do think Alabama’s offense will put up points on the road, though I don’t think it will be enough.

Alabama 28 Texas A&M 38

Andrew: It’s the SEC Game of the Week, and rightfully so. One of the best defenses in Alabama will be tasked with trying to slow down a prolific Texas A&M offense led by QB Kyle Allen. It’s in College Station, but the Crimson Tide always find ways to win these big games.Alabama knocks A&M from the ranks of the unbeaten, 35-31

Ben R: Horrendous match up for the tide. They really struggled against the pass in their game against Ole Miss. As good as Ole Miss’s passing attack is, I’d have to say Texas A&M is better with Kyle Allen and freshman sensation Christian Kirk leading the way. John Chavis will have to draw up a scheme to stop the two-headed monster of Kenyan Drake, and he’s lived up to the task before at LSU. The x-factor is Alabama qb Jake Coker. The tide will rise and fall with his play, and I’m going to bet on a poor performance. Give me A&M to cover and to win.

Ryan: Bama wins and covers over Texas A&M

John: Texas A&M looks really, really good. They don’t have the same quality of matchups that Alabama has in their pocket, however. I think Bama comes out and builds a 10 point lead early in the game. I think they then try unsuccessfully to run out the clock, settle for a few missed field goals and A&M wins in a thriller.

South Carolina (-4) V Vanderbilt

Sep 19, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Johnny McCrary (2) rushes for a touchdown against the Austin Peay Governors during the second half at Vanderbilt Stadium. Vanderbilt won 47-7. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: Nashville, TN Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 11 mph. Fair temperature. 41% humidity

Vanderbilt is a much improved team, and Derick Mason is showing a few reasons why he was regarded as one of the country’s best defensive coordinators at Stanford before joining the Commodores. Vanderbilt isn’t a threat to the more talented teams in the conference, but they are a threat to win over a very bad South Carolina team. I’ll take the Commodores in Nashville.

South Carolina 20 Vanderbilt 21

Andrew: The two worst teams in the SEC. Does it really matter who wins? Carolina scored some points against LSU last week, but I like Vandy’s D is one of the stingiest units in the conference. Vanderbilt wins 13-10 in a low-scoring affair.

Ben R: Will South Carolina come out motivated or deflated? I’m guessing motivated! South Carolina wins and cover the 4 points.

Ryan: Vandy wins and covers as South Carolina has to deal with losing Spurrier – big news that I’m sure would shake up any athlete that was recruited by him

John: Had Steve Spurrier called his press conference to announce he would be retiring after this Saturday I would pick the Gamecocks in a heartbeat. I think his immediate retirement, however, causes the Gamecocks to come out extra flat and lose by 2 scores.

LSU (-6.5) V Florida

Sep 12, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Treon Harris (3) throws the ball against the East Carolina Pirates during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida Gators defeated the East Carolina Pirates 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: (Evening Kickoff) *LSU NIGHT GAME **Conference Ramifications ***National Ramifications

Baton Rouge, LA Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 11 mph. Slightly warm temperature.

I liked LSU before the Will Grier suspension. I don’t think Florida’s defense can hold up a full game against the constant beating from the LSU run game. I do think this will be close late in the fourth quarter, but a final touchdown from Fournette puts this one out of reach.

Florida 20 LSU 28

Andrew: I don’t know how many times I have to say it this year: the Florida Gators are for real. Sure, the offense is a work in-progress. But that defense is nasty. The Gators will sell out against the run and force Brandon Harris to beat them with his arm — which he won’t. Florida wins 24-17.

Ben R: Upset special, make that money! The line has barely moved since the heartbreaking news about Will Grier. It shows how much this game was all about Florida’s defense and whether or not you believe they can stop Leonard Fournette. Nobody can STOP Leonard Fournette but UF has the front 7 to slow him down. I’m betting on Jalen Tabor and Vernon Hargreaves III to make Brandon Harris look even worse than anticipated. You just won’t be able to neat Florida with less than 10 completions (side note, if you can find a side bet on Brandon Harris completions, take the under). Treon Harris is an experienced starter, and he has enough first team reps to make the drop off minimal, while adding another dimension with his feet. Give me UF to cover and to win!

Ryan: LSU beats UF by 3 – Gators defense keeps them in it and Treon plays decent but will continue to be compared to Grier after the PED suspension

John: Florida will give it a fierce effort but will not be able to overcome the loss of Grier. The defense of the Gators will keep it close but a late Fournette touchdown will help LSU cover the spread.

Georgia (-16) V Missouri

Oct 10, 2015; Columbia, MO, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Drew Lock (3) warms up before the game against the Florida Gators at Faurot Field. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: (Evening kickoff) *Division Ramifications

Columbia, MO Forecast: Open skies. Clear. Wind 8 mph. Slightly cool temperature.

Missouri has no offense, so that’s good for the Georgia defense. The Tigers though do have a decent defense, so that’s where the game lies. Can the Georgia offense find enough through the air? I think they will. Also, will the Bulldogs be able to shake off two straight losses? If not, they’re in for a very rough season.

Georgia 30 Missouri 16

Andrew: Georgia wins, but not by much. Expecting the Dawgs to win by 16+ without Chubb is just too unrealistic. Georgia wins 24-20

Ben R: Georgia can’t beat Missouri ‘ s defense by 16 points, and UGA has a recent history of getting struggling offenses started on the right track. I think Georgia wins, but Missouri will cover.

Ryan: Georgia wins by 10 fails to cover – struggle without Chubb’s explosiveness still solid performances from Lambert and backup running backs

John: After losing Chubb, Georgia won’t quite have the same level of offense. Mizzou’s offense is completely lost with Lock, though . Georgia will win but they won’t be able to cover a 16 point spread.

(Bonus) Michigan (-7.5) V Michigan State

Oct 3, 2015; College Park, MD, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh watches a scoreboard replay against the Maryland Terrapins at Byrd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Neal: *Rivalry Game **Conference Ramifications ***National Ramifications

Ann Arbor, MI Forecast: Open Skies. Clear. Wind 13 mph. Cool temperature.

This is a big one. I have to admit, I haven’t really kept up with either team, but I have enough respect to acknowledge the importance of this one. Michigan’s defense has been solid thus far this year. Minus a loss to Utah (darkhorse playoff team) the Wolverine’s would be unbeaten. I like the Wolverines at home.

Michigan 32 Michigan State 23

Andrew: I don’t expect the clash between the Michigan schools to be as intriguing as it’s predicted. Michigan is tired of playing the role of ‘little brother’ in this match-up and they finally have the talent and personnel to flip the script. Michigan wins big in the Big House, 31-14.

Ben R: Utah is the only blemish on Michigan’s record, and while Michigan State is undefeated, it’s been very shaky. Give me Michigan to dominate. Big Blue covers and wins.

Ryan: Michigan continues to roll setting up a huge clash at the end of the year between them and Ohio State – Wolverines blowout Sparty for the first time since 2006 when they won 31-13 in Ann Arbor.

John: Michigan wins this one and Harbaugh starts getting legendary treatment in year one at the Big House. They won’t be able to cover a 7.5 point spread, however.

Next: Who is the favorite in the SEC East?

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ATS: Southbound and Down Staff Pick ‘Em (Week 7)

By John Richardson | Oct 15, 2015

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