Upset Specials in Week 9: Auburn or Kentucky

There are upsets in college football every single week. Some are predicted by analysts way ahead of the event, just ask @ryansummers18. He predicted that Arkansas would lose to Toledo on this very site weeks before the season ever started. Other upsets no one sees coming. The ones no one sees coming, though, are rare and special. Calling those games correctly are just complete luck or the equivalent of insider trading with information you have that no one else does.

Week 9 has four marquee games around the SEC. Those games have some of their luster and each also has a clear favorite and underdog. Only two, though, can be considered worthy of “upset specials.”

The first matchup is Texas A&M (-16.5) V South Carolina. You don’t become a three score favorite and have a chance to win, though I do think South Carolina has a chance at covering that spread.

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The next matchup is Florida (-3) V Georgia. While the Bulldogs are listed as 3 point underdogs, is anyone really going to be surprised if Georgia finds a way to win a rivalry game against a team whose stud quarterback is suspended? Yeah, I know Treon Harris performed well against LSU. But seriously, there is a reason Grier was starting ahead of him.

Then we have our two games that could actually be worthy of the term upset special: Ole Miss (-7.5) V Auburn and Tennessee (-8.5) V Kentucky. Auburn was picked by many to win the SEC, but instead sits at 4-3 (1-3 in the SEC). After being left for dead once they were dismantled by LSU 45-21, Auburn has found some life. They lost a close game to MSU, topped Kentucky by 3 and lost a heartbreaker to Arkansas in 4 OTs. While it does not sound like anything Auburn was hoping for in the preseason, Auburn has looked better each week under Sean White. This game is also at Jordan-Hare, one of the toughest place to find a win in the SEC. I’m not saying Auburn will win, but I wouldn’t pick Ole Miss to cover this spread with your money.

The other potential upset special sees another home underdog, as Kentucky hosts Tennessee as an 8.5 point dog. Outside of beating Georgia, Tennessee has been unable to win close games in 2015. And let’s be honest, Georgia isn’t exactly known for being clutch. If this game is within 8 points, I wouldn’t bet on Tennessee against a local peewee team. Kentucky, on the other hand, sits at 4-3 (2-3) and has been losing momentum. After losing to Auburn by only 3, Kentucky was dismantled in Starkville by Mississippi State. Tennessee seems like the safe pick here, while picking Tennessee to cover any spread greater than one is risky.

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I’m not confident in calling the upset in either game. But if I have to pick one, it is going to be Auburn. Ole Miss has lost its last two road games and Auburn is fighting for their bowl life. There’s also a reason that they were picked to win the SEC in the preseason: they are loaded with talent. Still, I’m picking Ole Miss in our weekly Pick ‘Em. But identifying the underdog that is most likely to pull the upset isn’t quite the same as making a pick.

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