“I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it”
-Thomas Jefferson
There is no doubt that there are some teams in every walk of sports, and at every level, that seem to repeatedly have things go their way, much more often than not. And I would argue that what Thomas Jefferson alluded to certainly has much validity associated with it. Teams, as well as individuals, seem to make their “own luck”, through going the extra mile with regard to conditioning and preparedness. When all else is equal on the field of play, that extra hard work and practice can often pay dividends, which can make the difference between a win and a loss in a tight battle.
But what I am getting at is that there are some that appear to have things, things that are beyond their control, go their way a bit more than perhaps some others. What you can control on the field is what you can influence through long and hard work. But it is those elements off of the field, those beyond your control, that seemingly tend to occasionally favor one over another, over a prolonged period of time.
Naturally, most teams that can be labeled with the moniker of “being lucky”, undoubtedly, are the ones who normally achieve at a high level on a rather consistent basis. Alabama Football is certainly one that comes to mind. There is no doubt that they excel on the field, year in and year out, because of the consistent recruiting of top-rated talent and due to stellar coaching that exists across the board. Success would be expected with this favorable mix.
But, there is another factor that has been especially evident in recent years for Alabama, as well as one or two other programs. More specifically, this factor may be known as the “backdoor entry” phenomenon.
Case in point – Alabama played for, and won, the National Championship last year, after winning the SEC West with an 11-1 record and then winning twice in the playoffs. I have no doubt they were the best team in college football last year. But, the best teams are not always the ones
crowned at the end of the year. If Ole Miss had not lost in and unbelievable, mindboggling overtime meltdown to Arkansas, at Oxford no less, they would have earned the right to play Florida in the SEC Championship Game. It would have been their first ever trip to Atlanta in this capacity. And, it’s anyone’s guess as to how a convincing win by the Rebels in that game, parlayed with their victory over the Crimson Tide, despite their two season losses, would have influenced the selection committee with their final pairings. Bottom line – Alabama was the “lucky” beneficiary of one of the most incredible and improbable plays in years, pulled off by the Hogs, which ultimately put the Tide in the SEC game and in position to cement a spot in the playoffs.
Going back a few years, following the 2011 season, the BCS title game was setting up for undisputed #1 LSU to hook up with #2 Oklahoma State. All the Cowboys had to do was to knock off a seven-loss Iowa State team and then dispose of #16 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. They got the title game part done, but somehow lost to the unranked Cyclones the week before. Step up Alabama and slide in through that backdoor for a seemingly advantageous rematch with the Tigers. Alabama smothered them.
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Even more improbable, the following year in 2012, two undefeated teams ranked ahead of a one-loss Alabama, with only one final game separating one of these two teams from a BCS title matchup with undefeated Notre Dame. Kansas State simply had to negotiate the Baylor Bears. They were routed. And Oregon had to get past Stanford. They lost in a close one. Again, in through the backdoor comes Alabama for a matchup with Notre Dame. It wasn’t even close as Bama rolled.
Four games in three separate years, in which the Crimson Tide had the good fortune of having each one of them turn their way, despite the odds being against it. These fortunate results ultimately propelled them into the position they needed to be in to play for the title. Granted, they took care of business when they were given these opportunities, but you just can’t argue that they had some lucky mojo working for them in each of those years.
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Alabama is certainly not the only team to have benefited from some favorable outcomes elsewhere. In 2007, LSU played Ohio State for the BCS Championship and won convincingly. But, they never would have had that chance if it were not for that backdoor being kicked open via a couple of unexpected losses by #1 Missouri and most surprisingly by #2 West Virginia, in an at-home shocker. A two-loss (both in overtime) LSU catapulted all of the way from #7 to #2 after beating Tennessee in the SEC title game, and the rest is history.
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The ultimate point in all of this is that in order to win the the title game, you first must earn an invite to play in it, or at least the playoffs in today’s format. And luck has certainly been on the side of these two teams when it needed to be. For Alabama, if luck had swung the other way during these three years mentioned, they very well may be lacking two or three of those notches in their title belt today.