5dimes has set the over/under for Ole Miss football wins in 2016 at 9.5– and I think you have to play the odds.
Ole Miss football had 3 players go in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft, but can they replace these stars with the incoming talent? The over/under has been set at 9.5 which would lead you to believe sportsbooks are high on the Rebels. A closer look at the odds will tell a different story. The under is paying -245, while the over is paying +175, and yes, the 9.5 does include postseason play and championship games. In layman’s terms, sportsbooks believe Ole Miss will fail to reach double digit wins in 2016, bowl victory or not.
Let’s briefly break down each game of the season for the Rebels and see if there is money to be made on the +175, or if the under is a sure thing and it is worth taking the hit at -245.
Related: Can Mizzou Cover 6 Wins?
Related: Florida Over/Under Set at 7.5 Wins
2016 Ole Miss Football Schedule
Florida State (Orlando)– Neutral-site game? Yeah. Florida State drew 50,000 fans in Orlando when they played their annual spring game there this year due to construction in Tallahassee. Call me crazy, but I think Ole Miss pulls this one off and pumps huge hype into their match up with Alabama.
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Wofford Terriers
– Starters get sat after the first quarter to help recover from a hard week at practice as the Rebels prepare for Alabama.
Alabama – Last year I said there was no way Alabama would lose to Ole Miss in back-to-back years and I was wrong. This game will truly show how much the Rebels miss Tunsil and Treadwell. If Ole Miss can’t protect Kelly, and his outside wide receivers can’t get separation from Alabama’s talented defensive backs, Ole Miss is going to fall flat. This game will also serve as a high-water mark for Ole Miss’s run defense. All that being said, Ole Miss does it, they beat Alabama.
Georgia – Ole Miss has a very bad recent history of dropping games they shouldn’t drop after a big victory. Maybe the fact that they are playing at home helps, but pencil Ole Miss in for an unexpected loss.
Memphis – Memphis lost a first-round quarterback to the draft, and they’ll be under a new head coach. Ole Miss will also remember what happened at Memphis last year. Ole Miss wins.
@ Arkansas – Arkansas has had Ole Miss’s number the last 2 years, but I think Ole Miss breaks the woo pig voodoo and wins a tough game on the road. Between this game and the Georgia game, I feel like Ole Miss will go 1-1. If it goes other than predicted here, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Ole Hotty Toddy
@LSU
– LSU and Ole Miss have some of the most entertaining football games you’ll ever see, fan of either of these teams or not. Look for a heavy dose of Fournette, and if Ole Miss successfully limits the run against Alabama at the beginning of the year, then Ole Miss fans will feel good about this game. Ole Miss loses a close one in Death Valley. Again, between this game and the Alabama game, I’ve got Ole Miss going 1-1 in those 2 games. I just can’t see them losing both, or winning both.
Auburn – After back-to-back road games, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and the friendly confines of The Grove will be a welcoming site for the Rebels. Too many questions at quarterback for me to feel good about taking Auburn to beat the Rebels in Oxford. Ole Miss wins.
Georgia Southern– Before you chalk this up as an easy W, remember Georgia Southern took Georgia to overtime last year and they beat the Gators in The Swamp in 2013. I think Georgia Southern will struggle with the Rebels offense, but if Kelly and company have an off day, craziness could happen in Oxford. But an Ole Miss loss here would be exactly that…craziness. Give me Ole Miss to win.
@ Texas A&M – Escaping College Station with a win will not be an easy task, but I think the Ole Miss defense holds their own and gives their offense a chance. The biggest question will be whether or not Ole Miss has the offensive line to slow down Myles Garret. I think a look at Myles Garret stat line at the end of the game will go hand-in-hand with the result of the game. Give me Ole Miss and a good gameplay to take the win.
@ Vanderbilt – Ole Miss messed around and almost lost at home last year against Vanderbilt, but I don’t expect the same close game. Ole Miss wins.
Mississippi State – Year after year, the Egg Bowl proves that there is nothing more unpredictable than rivalry games. If State finds a quarterback, they will not finish last in the SEC West. They are too good everywhere else, but when referencing the quarterback position, “if” is a very scary word. Ole Miss wins.
Over or Under?
By a regular season count, I’ve got Ole Miss winning 10 games. Saying that out loud, I must admit, it sounds a bit far-fetched, but it is the current trend of the Ole Miss football program under Hugh Freeze. Every year since he has taken over, Ole Miss has won one additional game the following year. Last year they won 10 games, can they really take the next step to 11?
With sportsbooks betting against them to even get to 10, it’d seem like 11 would be quite the stretch. However, if there were ever a time for Ole Miss to fight and earn their first SEC West title, 2016 would be the year. They clearly have the best quarterback in the entire conference, much less the SEC West. When you have the best player at the most important position in any sport, you tend to feel pretty good, but anytime you lose the talent Ole Miss just lost to the draft, it is hard to reach the prior year’s achievements.
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But, for the sake of arguing the over, let us say that Ole Miss loses one more game and they finish the season with 9 wins. If that additional loss is to Florida State, there is a good chance for Ole Miss to still represent the West in the SEC Championship game and their bowl game. That will give them 2 additional chances to hit 10 games. Let’s say that they win 9 games and fail to make it to the SEC Championship game like they did last year. I still see them winning their bowl game to push them to another 10 win season.
Yes, I understand this means Ole Miss will have to outperform expectations, but I expect Ole Miss to be benefactors of very deep recruiting classes in recent years, and I think Kelly leads the way. There is definitely more than one game I’d be nervous about, but I cannot take the -245 odds to take the under. The risk reward factor simply is not there. Taking all things into consideration, I’d stay away from this line altogether, but if I were given the money to place a bet, I’m taking Ole Miss and the over.