Las Vegas sportsbooks have set the over/under for Alabama football wins in 2016 at 10 – is there money to be made?
Related Arkansas Football: Over/Under 7 Wins
Related Georgia Football: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
Related LSU Football: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
Related Auburn Football: Over/Under 7.5 Wins
Related Texas A&M Football: Over/Under 8 Wins
Before we begin, let’s briefly address why the number 10 will be so important. If you’ve been following along with this series, you’ve already learned about the over/under system and how it works. If not, here’s a simple break down. Sports books based in Las Vegas have set the over/under number for Alabama football wins at 10 for 2016. This means if you decided to place a bet on the Tide’s season victory total, you would have to pick either under (9 or less), over (11 or more) or a push (exactly 8 wins). I do want to stress that this is just for fun and is not meant to be a betting guide. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s see if Alabama football attaining 10 wins or more is realistic.
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Alabama football has been remarkably consistent under Nick Saban. Let me rephrase that. Alabama football has been consistently great under Nick Saban. Since his first season in 2007, the Tide have failed to reach at least 10 wins exactly once. O yeah, that was his first season. Only once (2010) has Alabama football “only” reached 10 wins since then. It’s safe to say that Las Vegas setting the over/under mark at 10 is kind of insult to Saban’s Tide.
Can Alabama football continue it’s recent dominance? Alabama football has become so successful that teams celebrate beating them like it was a conference championship. The Tide are used to playing with a target on their back, but how does their schedule shape up for 2016?
Alabama Football 2016 Schedule
USC (Arlington, Texas)- Toss-up. If this game were later in the season, I’d count this as a win for Alabama football. There’s no telling how this one will turnout, though, as Alabama will be breaking in a new quarterback and running back.
Western Kentucky– Win
@Ole Miss– Toss-up. It’s crazy that this game is being considered a toss-up. Even crazier: if I were forced to make a pick today, I’d pick the Rebels at home to make it three in a row. Crazy I know, but it seems like Freeze has Saban’s number right now.
Kent State– Win
Kentucky– Win. Mark Stoops can say the Wildcats are close all he wants. They aren’t beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
@Arkansas– Win. While the Razorbacks are tough to knock off at home, they won’t be able to out “Alabama footbal” the Crimson Tide. Their offense just isn’t built for it this year.
@Tennessee– Win. I know the Tennessee hype train is rolling and many think we’ll see this matchup twice this year. Count me as being off the bandwagon, though.
Texas A&M– Win. The Aggies haven’t been able to challenge Alabama football since Johnny Manziel went to the NFL. That won’t change this year, especially not in Tuscaloosa.
@LSU– Toss-up. The Tigers likely have more 2016 NFL Draft picks on their team this year, but they still won’t be able to move the ball well enough to challenge the Tide.
Mississippi State- Win. The Bulldogs have been unable to compete against Alabama football with their best-ever quarterback under center. Don’t expect that to change now that Dak Prescott is gone.
Chatanooga- Win
Auburn– Win. The Tide will go out in style with 3 straight dominant home wins. Auburn will play the first half close. Then the adrenaline will become a distant memory and Alabama football will again rule the state of Alabama.
Verdict
must read: Chad Kelly Snubbed, SEC East Well Respected
There is no way I am betting against Saban and the Tide winning less than 10 games in 2016. They’ve replace quarterbacks the last few years like we change our boxers. Saban hasn’t failed to win at least 10 games since 2007. Take the over with confidence.