ATS (Week 12): Southbound and Down Staff Pick Em
There’s nothing to say after an embarrassing week 10 performance (unless you’re Ryan Summers). Let’s just get to the update and make the picks.
Don’t forget to make your own picks here.
Week 11 Update:
Neal: 3-4 ATS 3-4
Andrew: 4-3 ATS 4-3
Ben: 3-4 ATS 2-5
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Ryan 5-2 ATS 7-0
John: 3-4 ATS 2-5
Fans: ATS 1-6
Overall Update:
John: 74-21 ATS 55-40
Neal: 74-21 ATS 46-48-1
Ben R: 70-25 ATS 53-42
Andrew: 48-24 ATS 36-34
Ben M: 19-2 ATS 16-7
Ryan: 43-15 ATS 30-28
Lee: 30-7 ATS 23-16
Fans: 9-10
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Betsided
The Games:
Spreads courtesy of teamrankings.com
South Carolina (-31) v The Citadel
Neal: *Early Kickoff
Columbia, SC Forecast: Open skies and sunny. No rain. Wind 10 mph. Cool temperature with extremely low humidity
No true spread
Citadel 7 South Carolina 41
Andrew: It’s The Citadel. That’s all that needs to be said. South Carolina wins 34-7.
Ben R: South Carolina covers
Ryan: South Carolina wins easily.
John: South Carolina wins and easily. How easily, at least with the 2015 Gamecocks, is always hard to tell. The Citadel is terrible, though, and I’ll go with the Gamecocks covering. But only by a point or two.
Florida (-31) v Florida Atlantic
Nov 7, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators running back Kelvin Taylor (21) runs with the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida Gators defeated the Vanderbilt Commodores 9-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Neal: *Early Kickoff
Gainesville, FL Forecast: Cloudy. Projected rain. Wind 7 mph. Mild temperature with high humidity
Hard to look past some of Florida’s sleep walking games recently. Florida will destroy Florida Atlantic, but the score may not show what a beating it really was.
Florida Atlantic 10 Florida 41
Andrew: Florida Atlantic vs. Florida: After last Saturday’s win, McElwain said FAU has “a lot of guys who wish they were Gators.” That statement will hold true this Saturday when Florida pounds the Owls, 48-3.
Ben R: I say UF tests some new things to see what works on offense. Give me FAU to lose but cover the 31
Ryan: Florida wins over FAU but continues to struggle on offense, relying heavily on the run since Harris isn’t showing that he can throw. They should utilize the tight ends more but they aren’t looking past the first option in Jake McGee. Gators win but don’t cover.
John: Florida will keep it very vanilla outside of a few test plays and formations. They’ll sub early and often to remain healthy for Florida State and the SEC Championship Game. They’ll win convincingly, but they won’t cover.
Mississippi (-4) v LSU
Neal: *CBS Choice **Division Ramifications ***Bowl Ramifications
Oxford, MS Forecast: Mostly cloudy. No projected rain. Wind 13 mph. Cold temperature with low humidity
The Magnolia Bowl: One of the South’s oldest rivalries not many under the age of 40 really knows about. LSU and Ole Miss games are always competitive and close. I’m giving the Rebels one more shot..on both fronts.
Nov 7, 2015; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels wide receiver Laquon Treadwell (1) comes down with a touchdown [past Arkansas Razorbacks defensive back D.J. Dean (2) during the fourth quarter of the game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Arkansas won 53-52. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY SportsLSU 24 Ole Miss 30
Andrew: Can LSU end its two-game skid, or will the struggles continue for the Bayou Bengals? Both the Rebels and the Tigers will fall short of their preseason expectations, but they still have a chance at salvaging the season with a win on Saturday. I like Ole Miss at home, 35-28.
Ben R: The Nkemdiche news is terrible to hear and I wish him the best. I think Fournette finds his footing and LSU wins by double digits.
Ryan: LSU wins and covers in week 12 as Leonard Fournette plays angry for the Tigers against a tough defense. Fournette will try to impose his will on the Rebels and I think he will be semi-successful. Tigers by 7.
John: Recent history suggests that the underdog should be the pick in this game. But the underdog the last two years has also been the home team. I’ll take the home team trend over the underdog trend and pick the Rebels to cover. Barely.
Alabama (-31) v Charleston Southern
Neal:
Tuscaloosa, AL Forecast: Mostly cloudy. No projected rain. Wind 11 mph. Cold temperature with low humidity.
No true spread
Charleston Southern 6 Alabama 38
Andrew: The Crimson Tide get a tuneup game before making the trek to Auburn for the Iron Bowl. With a win against the Tigers next week, Alabama will solidify their spot in Atlanta to meet the Florida Gators. But it has to take care of Charleston Southern first — and it will with ease. Bama wins 52-0.
Ben R: I think Saban’s rant has everything to do with what he’s seeing from his team in practice. I don’t think the Tide are in any danger of losing, but I bet they don’t cover the spread.
Ryan: Alabama rolls to another late season victory. Don’t see them losing until CFP.
John: Saban going on a rant = Alabama underperforming. Book it. Alabama wins but doesn’t cover.
Auburn (32.5) v Idaho
Nov 14, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry (2) goes for a touchdown against Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Neal: *Bowl Ramifications
Auburn, AL Forecast: Partly cloudy. No projected rain. Wind 7 mph. Cool temperature with noticeable humidity.
I don’t like this one at all. Auburn is deflated. They’ve got one more game to get up for this season, and that’s next weekend. The Tigers will not cover.
Idaho 13 Auburn 41
Andrew: Idaho vs. Auburn: In no circumstance should Auburn be favored by 32+ points this season. The Tigers will win, but they don’t have the offensive firepower to win by that margin. Auburn beats Idaho 31-14.
Ben R: Auburn will bounce back from last week’s showing and cover the 32.
Ryan: Auburn wins against Idaho and covers spread (gutsy choice)
John: Auburn doesn’t have the capacity at this point in the season to score 40 or hold a team scoreless. They’ll dominate Idaho but they won’t cover the spread.
Arkansas (-3.5) v Mississippi State
Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications
Fayetteville, AR Forecast: No clouds. No projected rain. Wind 18 mph. Very cold temperature and moderate humidity.
Contrary to the Auburn game, I really like this one. Arkansas is on a roll and Fayetteville is a funky place for away teams. Cold temperature and strong winds howling through the Ozarks screaming “Take Arkansas, Neal…take the Hawgs!”
Mississippi State 21 Arkansas 38
Andrew: Prior to last week, Mississippi State was playing as good as anybody in the conference. Now, after consecutive wins over Ole Miss and LSU, it’s the Arkansas Razorbacks who have all the momentum right now. Give me the Hogs at home, 27-21.
Ben R: What if Arkansas played like this all year? Arkansas covers.
Ryan: Arkansas shuts down Prescott for the second week in a row. They also follow up for the second week in a row playing where they go up against a team that lost to Alabama and will cover against Mississippi State.
John: If this game was in Starkville I’d pick the Dogs to cover the spread. I’m not sure who I would pick to win. With the game in being in Fayetteville, I’ll take Arkansas to both win and cover.
Georgia (-14) v Georgia Southern
Neal: *Evening Kickoff
Athens, GA Forecast: Mostly sunny. No projected rain. Wind 7 mph. Cool temperature with moderate humidty.
I can’t believe this line is so low. I know Georgia Southern will put up their best fight, but I just can’t see them covering the spread against the Bulldogs. Obviously the Bulldogs win, but give me the Dawgs to cover.
Andrew: Georgia Southern vs. Georgia: It’s the battle of the Peach State! Too bad it won’t be even remotely exciting. Georgia handles GA Southern 41-10.
Ben R: Georgia Southern is going to stop being scheduled by SEC teams after this game. I think Georgia wins, but their inability to stop the run leads to a Georgia Southern cover.
Ryan: Georgia doesn’t cover the spread. Wins by three at most against Georgia Southern.
John: I assumed I would be picking Georgia Southern to cover the spread. Then I saw it was only 14. The odds makers are on to Georgia Southern and their run game. This is a tough spread to pick. Give me Georgia to squeak this one out.
Tennessee (-9) v Missouri
Nov 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Gary Pinkel leaves the field after a win over the Brigham Young Cougars at Arrowhead Stadium. Missouri won 20-16. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Neal: *Evening Kickoff **Bowl Ramifications
Columbia MO Forecast: Cloudy. No projected rain. Wind 21 mph. Very cold temperature with moderate humidity.
OK, the Vols winning seems easy, but peel back the onion a bit, and you start to realize the Missouri defense could give them some trouble. Factor in this game being at home on the road, and I could definitely see a competitive game. Give me the Vols in a close one.
Tennessee 24 Missouri 17
Andrew: Tennessee vs. Missouri: Despite having disappointing seasons, Tennessee and Missouri are playing well as of late. Mizzou will play with a lot of emotion for head coach Gary Pinkel, but the Vols offense will be too much to keep up with. Tennessee wins 27-17.
Ben R: Mizzou ‘s defense keeps it close, but UT wins by 10 to cover.
Ryan: Tennessee wins and covers against Missouri as the Tigers offense goes back into hiding in week 12.
John: Missouri will be looking to send Coach Pinkel out on a high note. They don’t have enough fire power to pull this one out, but they do have enough to cover the spread.
Texas A&M (-7) v Vanderbilt
Neal: *Evening Kickoff *Bowl Ramifications
Nashville, TN Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered rain. Wind 14 mph. Cold temperature with high humidity.
Texas A&M better be careful with this one. This is similar to the Tennessee-Missouri matchup in Columbia. Give me the Aggies for the win, and I think they’ll cover the spread, but not by much.
Texas A&M 27 Vanderbilt 17
Andrew: Look at Vandy, getting conference wins and whatnot! Derek Mason certainly has this program headed in the right direction and, if he can find an offense, the Commodores could emerge as legitimate contenders in the upcoming years. But they’re not there yet. I like Texas A&M in a relatively low-scoring win: 21-14.
Ben R: Uncertainty at quarterback is never a good thing, but I still think A&M covers.
Ryan: Texas A&M wins and covers against Vanderbilt and squanders the Commodores’ post season hopes and dreams.
John: Texas A&M had me fooled to begin this season. I was all aboard on the John Chavis bandwagon. I won’t jump back on it after this game, but I’ll be tempted. Vanderbilt’s offense will struggle all game and TAMU will cover.
Kentucky (-24.5) v Charlotte
Neal:
Lexington, KY Forecast: Cloudy. Showers. Wind 20 mph. Cold temperature with high humidity.
I could see that gang of Wildcats coming out, and laying it on Charlotte…wait..that doesn’t sound right. Just give me the Wildcats covering at home, and I’ll shut up.
Charlotte 10 Kentucky 35
Andrew: The way Kentucky has played lately, I’m almost tempted to take to Charlotte. Almost. Kentuckybeats Charlotte 31-21.
Ben R: I didn’t even know Charlotte was a school or had a football team, so for Coach Stoops and company, they’d better cover. I think they will.
Ryan: Kentucky wins but fails to cover in the late season game that should have been a blowout. Unfortunately the Wildcats probably can’t even blowout their own practice squad with the way they look on the field. So close game in week 12 for them.
John: Kentucky looks bad. Really bad. But Charlotte is 2-8 after losing 8 in a row. It’s not like they’ll be hyped to play this game. It’s sad I had to look that up just to feel confident enough to pick Kentucky to cover.
Next: ATS: Southbound and Down Readers Pick the Games
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