Florida Head Coach Billy Napier appears to have left his chair outside during the Florida summer, because he is sitting on a hot seat. With consecutive seasons with below .500 records to start his tenure in the Swamp, Napier needs to show some improvement fast or else the calls for his job will grow increasingly louder.
Even if the Gators are much improved in year three, that may not show in the record book. Florida was dealt one of the most difficult schedules in the country this season with 8 teams ranked in the pre-season top 25, including four top-10 teams.
Florida does return some starters on both sides of the ball, but those starters did go 5-7 last season. Even still, continuity is always good in college football, and continuity at the QB position is typically the most important.
Graham Mertz returns to Gainesville as the incumbent starter at QB. A wise and handsome man once said that "continuity at the QB position is typically the most important" (Butler, 2024). Even though Mertz impressed in 2023, he will have to be sharp in order to retain his job as talented freshman DJ Lagway waits in the wings.
If Mertz is performing well but Florida is losing games, Napier may have to insert Lagway as the starter in order to show the athletic administration that the future of the program is bright, even if this season is not.
Which games will Florida football lose in 2024?
Texas A&M
After upsetting Miami at home to start the season, the Gators will have some momentum early on. That momentum may help, but it will not be enough to overcome the talented Texas A&M roster they will face in week 3.
Mike Elko has a strong pedigree and even if the Aggies suffer a week 1 defeat to Notre Dame, he will have his team ready for this matchup against Florida. Aggies QB Connor Weigman is a breakout candidate after returning from injury, and a big game in the Swamp may be his coming out party.
Tennessee
After consecutive wins against Mississippi State and UCF, the Gators will be sitting at 4-1 heading into their rivalry showdown with Tennessee. Unfortunately for them, they may not be able to find another win on the schedule.
The losses begin when they travel to Knoxville and take on rising star QB Nico Iamaleava, who should be well acclimated to Josh Heupel's offense by this point.
Tennessee is ahead of where Florida is as a program right now, and the fact that this game is in Knoxville makes this an easy prediction to make.
Kentucky
It was not long ago that Florida owned a 31 game winning streak against Kentucky. But Kentucky has turned the series on its head, winning 4 of the last 6 contests since snapping the streak in 2018. Under Mark Stoops, Kentucky has been a physical and disciplined football team, and much of the same is expected this year.
Billy Napier is 0-2 against Kentucky so far, losing by an average of 14 points in those contests. Expect much of the same this year as the Wildcats should have one of the toughest defenses in the conference.
With Napier moving to 0-3 against Kentucky and the Gators now sitting at 4-3 heading into their bye-week and matchup against Georgia, the rumblings of his firing start to get a little bit louder.
Georgia
In last season's Cocktail Party, Florida's spirts were sky-high after jumping out to a quick 7-0 lead on the first possession of the game. Those spirts were quite quickly crushed (try saying that 5 times fast) though as Georgia went on to win 43-20, outscoring the Gators 43-13 following the first possession.
Weird things can happen in this rivalry, like men wearing jorts and adults barking at children, but Florida winning this game would be even weirder. Georgia is simply the better team in this game and should still have a lot to play for.
If things have gone the way I have predicted here, this might be last start for Graham Mertz. Napier may move to DJ Lagway to play the classic "hey look this young QB is really talented and has a lot of promise, so you better not fire me because he might transfer out if you do" card in an effort to save his job.
Texas
This is the point where you should start to realize that Florida's schedule is absolutely brutal. After playing Georgia, they turn around and immediately make a trip to Austin to play another pre-season top-5 team in Texas.
The trip out west will likely be more fun for the fans than it will be for the team, because at least they will get to stuff their faces with Texas BBQ, fill thine bellies with Texas beer, and enjoy the famous Austin live music scene.
On the field should be a different scene. Texas is a veteran and talented team playing at home, and although they have slept-walk through some games in the past, Florida likely won't be in the best shape to take advantage after a physical battle the week prior.
This game could get also get out of hand, leading to a rare on-field sighting for the definitely not overrated media darling Arch Manning.
Ole Miss
Florida fans may notice that I skipped over LSU, meaning that I am predicting Florida to snap their four game losing streak and win that game. That was less a prediction and more a momentary time of sympathy.
But that momentary time is up, and we are back to predicting losses. This one comes at the hands of Ole Miss and their fiery coach, Lane Kiffin. Kiffin's high-powered offense and potentially revamped defense should be able to control this game for the start, giving Kiffin plenty of time to check out sorority row before the ride back home.
The SEC has already announced that this game will be played at noon, taking away some of the home-field advantage Florida can expect for night games.
Given the way the season has played out so far, it is possible that there is an interim coach shaking Kiffin's hand following the game while Billy Napier watches from home.
FSU
Florida technically lost to FSU 15-24 last year, but keeping the game close made FSU look bad and may have hurt their chances at the playoff. So in a way, Florida kind of won.
But this year should be a different story when the Gators travel to Tallahassee. Again, this is just another case of Florida's opponent having the more talented team. Throw in the fact that this game is on the road, and it is hard to like Florida's chances.
Weird things happen in these meetings as well, like men wearing jorts and FSU fans covering themselves in glitter, likely ingesting copious amounts in the process. So a Florida win is not impossible. But if the season has played out like predicted so far, it is hard to see the team finding the motivation to pull this one off.
What would be the fallout from a 5-7 season?
If these predictions were to be true and Florida is to go 5-7, what would be the fallout for the program? Would Billy Napier be able to survive that season and retain his job? Who would be the replacement if Florida were to move on? Would there be a mass exodus of players to the transfer portal?
Maybe we will never know. Maybe Florida will use the pressure of this season as motivation. Maybe Graham Mertz will shine in his second season as the starter. Maybe the magic of The Swamp will propel Florida to some major key wins. Maybe a Week 1 victory over Miami will give the program some momentum that they can ride for the season. Maybe she's born with it. Maybe it's Maybelline.
Luckily for all of us, these wonders and many more will soon be answered.